Minnesota specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 77 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Minnesota has some odd number of delegates per district. Thus advantage is accrued by a candidate.
The statewide Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential primaries within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Minnesota has 77 delegates available. There are 8 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations of PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and at-large delegates , there are 10 different delegate allocation units. The delegates are mostly in 5,6,7 range with one at 9. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 5 from CD1 CD6 CD7; 6 from CD2 CD8; 7 from CD3 CD4; 9 from CD5. Remaining 27 allocated state-wide.
Caucus general information:
Minnesota operates an open caucus. Participation is open to all who consider themselves members of DFL and not active in other parties. Same day voter and affiliation registration is available. Uncommitted and write-ins are also allowed/treated as candidates.
Additionally Minnesota state allows for people to take unpaid time off work, as long 10 days notice is given to the employer, to participate in precinct caucus. Most of state government business and other non-critical activities are deliberately suspended in order to allow people option of attending the precinct caucus.
The general format of caucus (listed here only as a reminder to myself, and lest I forget}.
The caucuses are concurrently also the mechanism for DFL party organization/reorganization elections, endorsements, platform adoption processes and other party matters.
First stage (aka first determining stage): 1st March. held at precinct level, elects delegates to organization unit/county convention. Usual rules of viability thresholds and triggers apply.
Second stage (aka county/Organization Unit convention): held between March 12 and 17th of April , elects delegates to Congressional District/State conventions. Again usual rules of viability and thresholds apply here too.
Third stage (aka Congressional District convention): held between 30 April and 29th May, elects 50 district level delegates to DNC.
Fourth Stage (aka State convention/assembly): held on 4 June. Elects Statewide delegates.
Binding Ballot aka No Tampering With Delegate: Delegates at any stage are not permitted to change their presidential preference at any level unless their preferred candidate withdraws from race or becomes unviable at next level delegate election to stage. Uncommitted are free to change their mind just once.
This being caucus the final numbers of delegates from districts and state-wide awarded while can be estimated are they are estimates only. Usually they might go up or down by up to 15% on county levels and 7.5% on district/state level. Usually means the actual DNC delegate numbers might go up or down by 1 delegate than estimated.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for achieving delegates on congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
I have grouped the Congressional districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them. The thresholds %s are relative to each other. For example, this means that a vote results of 49-48-2 is effectively, 50.5 — 49.5. This is derived from 49/(49+48) vs 48/(49+48).
Delegates Acquired
out of available
|
5 Del
cd1 cd6 cd7
|
6 del
cd2 cd8
|
7 del
cd3 cd4
|
9 del
cd5
|
Delegate Allocation Thresholds/Triggers
1 del |
15
|
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
30 |
25 |
21.4 |
16.7 |
3 del |
50 |
41.7 |
35.7 |
27.8 |
4 del |
70 |
58.3 |
50 |
38.9 |
5 del |
85 |
75
|
64.3 |
50 |
6 del |
|
85 |
78.6 |
61.2 |
7 del |
|
|
85 |
72.3 |
For 5 Delegates at CD1 CD6 CD7: Second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. These districts becomes very crucial as they break even with small % advantage, a whole delegate is available. Most likely to be fought over tooth and nail to get that 3-2 split in favour. 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split.
For 6 Delegates at CD2 CD8: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. The vote advantage of 16% is not going to make any difference. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. To get a 5-1 split is going to take a 75% support level.
For 7 Delegates at CD3 CD4: Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. Goals for both campaigns will be to walk away with the delegate advantage awarded by these districts.
For 9 Delegates at CD5: First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 16.7%, third at 27.8% and fourth at 38.9%. Since CD5 has a high number of delegates, there are many more trigger points for acquiring extra delegates. The tipping point is again at 50% for the advantageous break with 5-4 split. Additional delegates acquired at 61.2% and 72.3%. For a campaign a smaller movement in the district could still trigger an extra delegate.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 10 PLEOs and 17 At-Large delegates. The small numbers of delegates available also means that a only a larger movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.
For 10 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): (See table below.) Because of a small number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly large. The extra delegates achieving triggers are listed below. I am ranging a few interesting trigger points. State-wide vote share is more likely to between 35% and 65% band for both. Crossing the viability of 15% gives 2 delegates. Each subsequent 10% votes translates to 1 additional delegate. Between 45%-55% range delegates will split even (5-5). An advantage can only be achieved at support levels of at least 55%. In the table below, triggers for PLEOs are listed. Corresponding At-Large delegates at that level are also listed for comparison. A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote Share% |
15 |
25 |
35 |
45 |
55 |
65 |
75 |
85 |
|
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers - PLEOs
PLEO (del10) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
|
Corresponding
At-Large (Del 17)
|
3 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
17 |
|
For 17 State-Wide(At-Large) Delegates: (See table below.) Crossing the viability threshold awards 3 delegates. Fourth delegate is cheap at 20.6%. Subsequent delegates cost only 5.9% each. Small movement could trigger a delegate advantage. Between 45.7 and 50% 8 delegates are achieved. The advantage break point of 50% gives a (9-8) favourable delegate split. Further triggers for additional delegates at 55.9% and 61.8% are within smaller movement. If poll numbers are hovering around the triggers then any campaign effort would make an impact In the table only some interesting trigger ranges are listed. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison.
Vote Share % |
15 |
20.6 |
32.4 |
38.3 |
44.5 |
50 |
55.9 |
61.8 |
67.7 |
73.6 |
Delegate Allocation Triggers At-Large Delegates
At-Large (del17) |
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
Corresponding
PLEO (10)
|
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
Taking both categories into account the clumping of triggers around 44.5% and 45% as well as the corresponding 55% and 55.9% would mean that any advantages that can be made here in the region would yield two extra advantages. Depending on poll levels, expect a lot of activity.
Next bit is my personal opinion only: Most of the contest is likely to be getting statewide share above 50% for those extra delegate advantages from district based allocations. However I am being cautious and only assuming that every odd delegate break will go on Clinton favour but only by 1delegate. Mostly breaking at 3-2, 4-3, 4-3 and 5-4. With statewide around 15-12. Overall total delegates splitting 42-35.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.
And big super personal thank you to mettle fatigue for encouraging, showing and explaining to me how to bring these diaries to wider and topical interested parties/readerships.
Today's shout out to MattTX , who has been very diligently looking at building predictive model for elections. http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/8/1478509/-Democratic-Primary-Model-Jan-8-Update-Pre-NH it has excellent graphic presentation.
As well as a lot of meat for the statistics, models, electioneering and data buffs.