Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce our first set of House race ratings for the 2016 election cycle. Our full chart rating the competitiveness of each contest is below (with Democratic seats shaded in blue and Republican seats in red), and a description of our ratings categories follows at the bottom of this post. Above, Andy Thornton has visualized all of our ratings in map form (click here for a larger version), using a cartogram created by Daniel Donner that represents each congressional district as equally sized while still preserving recognizably shaped states.
All seats not listed above are considered “safe” for the party that currently holds them, except for three seats that have been rendered safe for the opposing party thanks to court-ordered redistricting, meaning we expect them to change hands in November. Two are currently held by Republicans, FL-10 and VA-04, and one is held by Democrats, FL-02.
Republicans currently hold 246 seats in the House of Representatives, while Democrats hold 188. One Republican seat, OH-08 (previously held by former Speaker John Boehner), is vacant, but we expect it to remain in GOP hands in a special election this June. Democrats therefore need to pick up 30 seats to get to 218 and retake the majority in the 435-member chamber.
But a range of factors, including gerrymanders that favor Republicans and sub-optimal candidate recruitment for Democrats, makes such a transfer of power unlikely. As both the chart and map starkly show, the playing field is, barring a wave election that does not appear to be brewing, simply too small. However, the prospect of a Donald Trump nomination threatens to upend traditional electoral models and may require us to revise these ratings more extensively than we would in a typical election cycle.
Still, there are a fair number of seats on the big board—52 in total—so we haven't provided writeups for each one. However, as the election cycle unfolds and we make adjustments to our ratings, we will offer full explanations on each occasion. And later on, we’ll also issue ratings in races that feature two candidates of the same party, following primaries in states where such matchups are possible (California, Louisiana, and Washington).
You can also find our continually updated permanent House race ratings chart here.
Ratings category definitions:
Tossup: Both (or all) parties have a strong, though not necessarily perfectly equal, chance of winning. Some Tossups may be shown with their backgrounds shaded blue or red, meaning they "tilt" toward the indicated party (i.e., that party has a slight advantage). In races featuring two candidates of the same party, this category is called "No Favorite,” to distinguish such races from traditional Tossups.
Lean: One party (or candidate) has an identifiable advantage, but an upset victory is possible for the other party (or candidate).
Likely: One party (or candidate) has a strong advantage and is likely to win, though the race has the potential to become more competitive.
Safe: Barring unforeseeable developments, one party (or candidate) is certain to win.