Currently up on the rec list is a diary by Laurence Lewis, a front page writer here who I respect. The name of his blog post is “Why Donald Trump will never be elected, in one tweet.” It’s a well used and some might say over-used title technique, maybe not as ubiquitous and annoying as the one weird trick meme, but it is pretty close. I can’t tell you how many similarly titled blog posts, diaries, etc. I’ve seen over the years. It’s cute, and many people tend to click on such articles because of the title. Unfortunately, just saying one can demonstrate with one tweet or anecdote or gaffe that a particular candidate has no way in hell of ever winning an election is — well its foolish. Rather than tell you why its foolish to assume someone has no shot to win the presidency, let me show you in (forgive me) one image:
This is a a screen capture of the title and first paragraph from diary that Kylopod posted in November, 2009, a year after Barack Hussein Obama won the 2008 election for President, despite all the gazillions of pundits and naysayers who claimed that there was no possible way he could ever win. Kylopod went on to quote from a short list of all the people who stated Obama had no shot, from ...
Charles Krauthammer:
Oct. 27, 2006: "[Obama] should run in '08. He will lose in '08. And the loss will put him irrevocably on a path to the presidency." For him to win in '08 would require a "miracle."
to Bill Kristol:
Dec. 17, 2006: "Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single Democratic primary. I'll predict that right now."
to Mark Penn (yes, that Mark Penn):
Mar. 19, 2007: "The right knows Obama is unelectable except perhaps against Attila the Hun."
to Michael Graham, at the National Review:
Jan. 26, 2008: "The 'could we beat Obama?' conversation is purely academic. It's over. The Clintons have defeated him already, because he is leaving South Carolina as 'the black candidate.' He won't win another state."
… and so on and so forth. But I think you get the point. It is utter nonsense to claim that Trump has no way to victory against either of the Democratic contenders. For Laurence Lewis to write him off in early March is as unwise and injudicious a move as it was for all the numerous people who continued to claim, month after month that Obama could not possibly defeat Hillary Clinton, and then after he won the nomination that he was unlikely to defeat John McCain.
Defeating Trump will not be a slam dunk, no matter how hard we might want that to happen. His supporters are passionate about his campaign to the point of making him a cult figure. They will turn out to vote. If the Democratic Party’s nominee does not find a way to elicit the same passion among his or her supporters, Trump could easily become our next President.
I remember when Reagan won the nomination in 1980 and there were those who said the American people would never elect a second rate actor over the then sitting President, Jimmy Carter. Heck in March, 1980, Reagan trailed Carter by 58% to 33% in a head to head match-up. Yet as we all know, by November, Reagan won with 51% of the popular vote that year.
Clinton may lead Trump now by an average of 47% to 41%, and Bernie may lead Trump by 51% to 41% but that hardly makes either of them a shoe-in to win against him seven months from now. So let’s not get overly excited about the Democratic nominee’s chances against the Donald based on a single tweet or poll. There is still a very long way to go. It behooves all of us to act as if our candidates will be in for the fight of their lives if they face Trump in the general election, rather than assume Trump is a dead man walking.