Well according to Allan J. Lichtman in his latest column the Democratic have seven keys count in favor of their incumbent of the White House:
- The decision of billionaire former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) to eschew a third-party or independent campaign for president wins Third Party Key 4 for the Democrats.
- The fact that the United States is in a slow recovery, not an ongoing recession, secures Short-Term Economy Key 5.
- Relatively strong economic growth in the second Obama term as compared to his previous term and George W. Bush's second term locks in Long-Term Economy Key 6.
- The absence of sustained, violent upheavals like those of the 1960s avoids loss of the Social Unrest Key 8.
- The lack of any significant presidential scandal like the Watergate scandal of the 1970s averts the loss of Scandal Key 9.
- The president has not suffered a major foreign policy or military failure, comparable to Pearl Harbor or losing the Vietnam War, keeping Foreign/Military Failure Key 10 in line.
- The Republican challengers lack the charisma of a President Theodore Roosevelt or President Reagan. Even their most dynamic potential candidate, Donald Trump, appeals only to a small segment of the electorate. Thus, Democrats retain the Challenger Charisma/Hero Key 13.
Currently there are five that is against the Democratic incumbent in the White House:
- The party's losses in the 2014 midterm elections have cost it Mandate Key 1.
- President Obama's inability to compete for a third term topples Incumbency Key 3.
- The lack of a historic policy change in the second Obama administration forfeits Policy Change Key 7.
- The failure of the American people so far to recognize either the Paris agreements on climate change or the Iran nuclear treaty as a major foreign policy triumph costs the Democrats Foreign/ Military Success Key 12.
- The absence of a candidate with the charisma of a President Franklin Roosevelt or President Kennedy turns the Incumbent Charisma Key 12 against the Democrats.
Sadly according to Litchman if the race goes to the convention between Clinton and Sanders then Donald Trump will win the Presidency. Don’t discount Professor Litchman, he wrote the Book the 13 Keys to the White House that has predicted the outcome of the election, including the 2000 Presidential election.