Before we get to the most recent polling, let’s take a look at something more interesting—a prediction by Alan Abramowitz of tomorrow’s results based the votes cast so far this cycle.
Feels about right, doesn’t it? Given the stunning Michigan results last week, Ohio would certainly appear to be Sanders territory—very similar culturally, but even whiter. Yet as we’ll see, the polling seems to match the numbers above in every state except … Ohio. Let’s go look!
Florida (214 delegates): Hillary Clinton 61, Bernie Sanders 32.
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
Quinnipiac |
3/8-13 |
60 |
34 |
3/2-7 |
62 |
32 |
PPP |
3/11-12 |
57 |
32 |
2/24-25
|
57 |
32 |
CBS/yougov |
3/9-11 |
62 |
34 |
- |
- |
- |
Florida Atlantic U
|
3/8-10 |
59 |
31 |
1/15-18 |
62 |
26 |
NBC/WSJ/MARIST |
3/4-10 |
61 |
34 |
- |
- |
- |
Mason-Dixon |
3/7-9 |
68 |
23 |
- |
- |
-
|
Funny aside, Mason-Dixon is among the worst pollsters around. The rest are all in the same general ballpark. Florida will be called as soon as the polls close.
Illinois (156): Clinton 49, Sanders 41
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
McKeon &ASsoc |
3/12 |
31 |
34 |
- |
- |
- |
PPP |
3/11-12 |
48 |
45 |
-
|
-- |
- |
CBS/YOUGOV |
3/9-11 |
46 |
48 |
- |
- |
- |
NBC/Marist
|
3/4-10 |
51 |
45 |
- |
- |
- |
We Ask America |
3/7-8 |
62 |
25 |
2/24 |
57 |
28 |
Here’s a case where the polling composite hasn’t caught up to the polls released today, all of which show a neck-and-neck race. This should be a Clinton gimme, since this is her home state, but the same trends that flipped Michigan seem to be at play here. Abramowitz’s numbers do suggest a tight race, so the polling appears to have caught up to where the demographics say the race should be.
A Sanders victory here would provide huge impetus to continue on, regardless of the evening’s final delegate tally.
Missouri (71): No polling composite, two new polls:
PPP: Sanders 47, Clinton 46
Fort Hayes State U: Clinton 47, Sanders 40
That “poll” by Fort Hayes U had a sample size of 145, so total bunk. PPP gives Sanders the slight edge. Abramowitz’s regression analysis says Sanders should win by anywhere from 6 to 10 points. This should be a Sanders state, and perhaps an easy call. On the other hand, losing it would be devastating to him. Again, delegate-wise, the final spread won’t be huge. But Sanders needs to win states to keep any semblance of momentum going, and Missouri is the easiest pickings of the night.
North Carolina (107): Clinton 55, Sanders 35
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
PPP |
3/11-13 |
56 |
37 |
2/14-16 |
52 |
35 |
SUSA |
3/9-10 |
58 |
34 |
3/4-7
|
57 |
34 |
The only two polls in the race show momentum headed in Clinton’s direction, it’s a southern state with a huge African American population … yeah, this one will be called as soon as the polls close.
Ohio (143): Clinton 54, Sanders 41
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
Monmouth U |
3/11-13 |
54 |
40 |
- |
- |
- |
Quinnipiac |
3/8-13 |
51 |
46 |
3/2-7
|
52 |
43 |
PPP |
3/11-12 |
46 |
41 |
3/4-6 |
56 |
35 |
CBS/YouGov
|
3/9-11 |
52 |
43 |
- |
- |
- |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
3/4-10 |
58 |
38 |
- |
- |
- |
Man, how do you square these polling numbers with the results in Michigan and Abramowitz’s regression analysis, which has Sanders winning the state by 4 to 8 points? This isn’t a gut vs data situation, it’s data vs data. And my gut says Sanders! But the polling says Clinton.
Still, there’s no doubt that winning Ohio would be huge for Clinton, getting her much closer to finishing this primary off, and it would be huge for Sanders, providing continued impetus for his campaign.
Obviously, the best-case scenario for Clinton would be a clean sweep of the evening. For Sanders, it would be winning Illinois, Missouri and Ohio. Either way, Clinton should end the evening with a larger delegate lead. But at this point, her goal isn’t to grow her delegate lead (she’s gonna be the nominee), it’s to deliver a decisive knock-out blow to Sanders to try and end this sooner rather than later. And losing two or three states tomorrow—regardless the final delegate count—won’t accomplish that.
Tomorrow is a big day, with a lot on the line.
p.s. Donald Trump will probably win everything except for Ohio. Marco Rubio will go bye bye, and everyone will pretend John Kasich has a chance.