This diary is NOT a concern troll. It is just a weird idea that I can’t get out of my head. I don’t know if sharing it will help or hurt.
It looks like a Hillary vs. Trump cage match in the fall.
It seems like a slam dunk. A battle-tested, consummate leader vs. a vile circus act.
But overly simple strategic situations scare me. People are more resourceful than that. Remember when Mitt Romney faked out Obama in the first debate? Romney was trailing badly at the polls and he had nothing new to say … so he just spewed lies, half-truths and speculation much faster than the President could respond. A big chunk of the American electorate gave Romney the win. It set the Obama campaign back a month and may have cost Democrats the House.
Smart people (and Donald isn’t dumb) will seek similar strategies to win. We ignore them at our peril.
So what could Donald do? What might I do if I were in Donald’s shoes?
First some basic assumptions:
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Trump’s primary message will bomb in the general. He has pissed off Blacks, immigrants and Latinos. If he stays on message, we can wait (not long) for him to issue a deeply misogynistic tirade against some woman (or all women). That will complete the alienation of about 70% of the electorate! Game over.
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Trump is not really an ideologue. I remember a Senate hearing 25+ years ago, where Donald was a witness in the savings and loan crisis congressional hearing. He gave a cogent analysis that advocated raising taxes on the wealthy. He said they would resist making risky investments if they knew they could keep all of the gains from safe ones. I remember being impressed. As much as I am appalled by his current rhetoric, I can’t believe that the rational Donald is totally dead. I can’t shake the feeling that his current malevolent rhetoric is mostly an act … aimed at his target audience.
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Trump has broken every rule of politics … and won so far. He stole the Republican party base in an outright theft … and he did it by breaking rules. He ignored the Republican establishment, the pundit class, and Fox News … the mandarins that normally demand obeisance. He used a bullhorn instead of dog whistles. He ignored the big donors and the corporate backers.
Instead, he went straight to the base and gave them two things they desperately wanted:
- A red-meat attack on all of the groups and symbols they see as threats.
- An unapologetic, strongman persona for authoritarian-loving Republicans to believe in.
So assume for a minute that he is not crazy and he is not stupid. Where could he go from here? My fear is that he will do the following.
The moment he secures the nomination (and not a moment before), he breaks THE cardinal rule of American politics … and does a massive and unapologetic public flip-flop.
I can imagine him coming out of the Republican convention and coolly and baldly saying … “just kidding”. He flat tells the electorate that his primary campaign was all an act to gain the nomination. He is a master at doing deals and it was a typically skillful negotiation ploy. Just a day at the office.
Then he lays out what needs to be done for the good of the country … and the rational Donald re-emerges. He says we need to keep the ACA, but fix it. We need to close offshore tax haven loopholes. We need to break up “too big to fail”. We need to support the 2nd amendment, but close the gun show loophole. We need to put more troops in the Mideast … but mainly to support special ops and give logistics to our partners.
… and on, and on, and on like that.
He steals shamelessly from the Bernie playbook. He backs it up with his purported “business acumen”. He is unrelentingly nice to Hillary. She can’t tag him as a flip-flop … because he has embraced the label as his unique badge of competence.
The Republican establishment is slightly relieved … just enough to hold their nose and vote for him.
His base is torn. He has abandoned their issues, but he is the wily, decisive leader they crave. In their confusion, they vote for him.
Independents (who tend to lean a bit right), find the new Donald surprisingly charming and attractive.
And at the end, 50% + 1 people look on and say … “well played, sir”.
Forewarned is forearmed?
P.S. I sometimes also have nightmares … until I wake up.