Hello Friends!
Yesterday I wrote a diary looking at the limited polling that is available in Arizona that shows Clinton with a formidable lead. There is new information out today that brings new data to our analysis as to where Arizona is likely to end up for Hillary. And it looks very promising…
Check Out This Link:
www.politico.com/...
This is the passage that stands out to me:
“Early voting, which in Arizona starts about two weeks before the primary election, may hold some clues as to the eventual outcome. The numbers have offered some positive signs for Clinton: According to figures provided by the Arizona Democratic Party, of the 601,049 early ballot requests, 262,547 were returned, with 121,374 from voters 65 and over and another 75,504 from voters between the ages 50-64. Both age groups have been friendly to Clinton in other states.
By contrast, just 18,842 ballots have been returned from voters between the ages of 25 to 34 and 8,959 from voters between 18 and 24 – ominous signs for Sanders, who runs best among younger voters.”
In the 2008 primary 455,000 Democrats voted in Arizona. That means it is likely 50% of the vote has already been banked in Arizona. And of that 50% that has been returned 75% of those votes are ages 50 and above… a demographic that is EXTREMELY favorable to Hillary.
I also believe the Tuesday sweep will help last minute deciders break to Hillary’s favor.. or the margins to at least remain close.
Keeping all of this in kind… I think we could be looking at a 20+ point win for Hillary.
I’m looking forward to see how this plays out!