Last night’s results in Arizona, Utah and Idaho provided a mixed bag for both candidates. While Hillary Clinton won the night’s big prize of Arizona by almost 20 points, Bernie Sanders ran up 4-1 margins in Utah and Idaho. The results mean that Bernie netted about 19 delegates on the night, but appears to have fallen just shy of the ~58% of pledged delegates he needs to win from here on in order to tie the delegate race after California votes. The results of the night offer a warning to both sides. For the Sanders campaign, the results in the latino heavy districts of Arizona throw cold water on the hope they have that he can win California by a wide enough margin to ultimately win the delegate race. While for the Clinton campaign, the 4-1 losses in Idaho and Utah should spur them to try to keep down Bernie’s margins in the Washington caucuses. A 2-1 loss there wouldn’t be unexpected, but a 4-1 loss would start to make a dent in the percentage of remaining delegates that Bernie needs to win in order to tie the delegate race. After the Democrats Abroad caucuses resulted in a 9-4 delegate split for Sen Sanders, Sec Clinton now leads by approximately 300 pledged delegates (at time of writing, her lead is projected to be exactly 300 delegates). Hillary Clinton is still firmly in control of the delegate race and the percentage of remaining pledged delegates Bernie needs to tie the pledged delegate race remains 58%.
Delegate Standings
The numbers below are pulled from the Green Papers. The results from yesterday are their projections and may shift marginally.
DATE |
|
PLEDGED DELEGATES |
COOK'S CLINTON TARGET |
COOK'S SANDERS TARGET |
CLINTON TARGET ADJUSTED |
SANDERS TARGET ADJUSTED |
538 CLINTON TARGET |
538 SANDERS TARGET |
CLINTON RESULT |
SANDERS RESULT |
TO BE ALLOCATED |
CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM COOK'S TARGET |
CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM 538'S TARGET |
CLINTON TOTAL |
SANDERS TOTAL |
RAW LEAD |
2/1/2016 |
Iowa |
44 |
16 |
28 |
18 |
26 |
18 |
26 |
23 |
21 |
|
5 |
5 |
23 |
21 |
CLINTON BY 2 |
2/9/2016 |
New Hampshire |
24 |
9 |
15 |
10 |
14 |
9 |
15 |
9 |
15 |
|
-1 |
0 |
32 |
36 |
SANDERS BY 4 |
2/20/2016 |
Nevada |
35 |
16 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
15 |
|
2 |
3 |
52 |
51 |
CLINTON BY 1 |
2/27/2016 |
South Carolina |
53 |
27 |
26 |
30 |
23 |
32 |
21 |
39 |
14 |
|
9 |
7 |
91 |
65 |
CLINTON BY 26 |
3/1/2016
|
Alabama |
53 |
27 |
26 |
30 |
23 |
35 |
18 |
44 |
9 |
|
14 |
9 |
135 |
74 |
CLINTON BY 199
|
American Samoa |
6 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
139 |
76 |
Arkansas |
32 |
13 |
19 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
14 |
22 |
10 |
|
7 |
4 |
161 |
86 |
Colorado |
66 |
30 |
36 |
33 |
33 |
30 |
36 |
28 |
38 |
|
-5 |
-2 |
189 |
124 |
Georgia |
102 |
52 |
50 |
57 |
45 |
65 |
37 |
74 |
28 |
|
17 |
9 |
263 |
152 |
Massachusetts |
91 |
35 |
56 |
40 |
51 |
41 |
50 |
46 |
45 |
|
6 |
5 |
309 |
197 |
Minnesota |
77 |
32 |
45 |
36 |
41 |
30 |
47 |
31 |
46 |
|
-5 |
1 |
340 |
243 |
Oklahoma |
38 |
16 |
22 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
20 |
17 |
21 |
|
-1 |
-1 |
357 |
264 |
Tennessee |
67 |
30 |
37 |
33 |
34 |
33 |
34 |
44 |
23 |
|
11 |
11 |
401 |
287 |
Texas |
222 |
111 |
111 |
122 |
100 |
126 |
96 |
147 |
75 |
|
25 |
21 |
548 |
362 |
Vermont |
16 |
4 |
12 |
5 |
11 |
2 |
14 |
0 |
16 |
|
-5 |
-2 |
548 |
378 |
Virginia |
95 |
43 |
52 |
48 |
47 |
52 |
43 |
62 |
33 |
|
14 |
10 |
610 |
411 |
3/5/2016
|
Kansas |
33 |
14 |
19 |
16 |
17 |
14 |
19 |
9 |
24 |
|
-7 |
-5 |
619 |
435 |
CLINTON BY 202
|
Louisiana |
51 |
26 |
25 |
29 |
22 |
33 |
18 |
37 |
14 |
|
8 |
4 |
656 |
449 |
Nebraska |
25 |
10 |
15 |
11 |
14 |
10 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
|
-1 |
0 |
666 |
464 |
3/6/2016 |
Maine |
25 |
9 |
16 |
10 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
9 |
16 |
|
-1 |
-1 |
675 |
480 |
CLINTON BY 195 |
3/8/2016
|
Michigan |
130 |
55 |
75 |
62 |
68 |
63 |
67 |
63 |
67 |
|
1 |
0 |
738 |
547 |
CLINTON BY 219
|
Mississippi |
36 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
16 |
23 |
13 |
32 |
4 |
|
12 |
9 |
770 |
551 |
3/12/2016 |
Northern Marianas |
6 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
774 |
553 |
CLINTON BY 221 |
3/15/2016
|
Florida |
214 |
94 |
120 |
105 |
109 |
116 |
98 |
142 |
72 |
|
37 |
26 |
916 |
625 |
CLINTON BY 324
|
Illinois |
156 |
73 |
83 |
81 |
75 |
85 |
71 |
78 |
78 |
|
-3 |
-7 |
994 |
703 |
Missouri |
71 |
30 |
41 |
34 |
37 |
36 |
35 |
36 |
35 |
|
2 |
0 |
1030 |
738 |
North Carolina |
107 |
54 |
53 |
59 |
48 |
57 |
50 |
60 |
47 |
|
1 |
3 |
1090 |
785 |
Ohio |
143 |
60 |
83 |
67 |
76 |
71 |
72 |
81 |
62 |
|
14 |
10 |
1171 |
847 |
3/20/2016 |
Democrats Abroad |
13 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6.5 |
7 |
4 |
9 |
|
-3 |
-2.5 |
1175 |
856 |
CLINTON BY 319 |
3/22/2016
|
Arizona |
75 |
33 |
42 |
37 |
38 |
34 |
41 |
45 |
30 |
|
8 |
11 |
1220 |
886 |
CLINTON BY 300
|
Idaho |
23 |
10 |
13 |
11 |
12 |
9 |
14 |
5 |
18 |
|
-6 |
-4 |
1225 |
904 |
Utah |
33 |
12 |
21 |
14 |
19 |
14 |
19 |
6 |
27 |
|
-8 |
-8 |
1231 |
931 |
TOTALS |
|
|
|
|
1082 |
1080 |
1114 |
1049 |
1231 |
931 |
0 |
149 |
118 |
|
|
|
Clinton’s Delegate Target Surplus
A week ago, I introduced the concept of the delegate target surplus (or deficit), which is in summary, how much better (or worse) a candidate is doing that their projected targets in order to get to 50% of the pledged delegates. Last week, Hillary Clinton’s delegate target surplus according to my modified version of the Cook Report’s targets was 158, while according to 538.com’s targets her surplus was 121. After the contests of the past week, those numbers have moved slightly — according to the modified Cook model, her surplus is 149 delegates, while according to the 538 model, it’s 117.5 delegates. As a reminder, a surplus of 0 would mean that both candidates are on track to make 50% of the total pledged delegates, so despite Bernie’s 4-1 wins in Idaho and Utah, his deficit remains prodigious.
Next Up
The next 2 weeks promise to be the best stretch of Bernie’s best of the entire campaign, and he could win every contest available on March 26 (Washington, Alaska and Hawaii), April 5 (Wisconsin) and April 9 (Wyoming). He will need to run up the score as much as he can in those states to keep alive whatever meager hopes there are of him winning the delegate race, because after those contests a string of delegate rich states that strongly favor Hillary Clinton follow.