Yes, this is another math diary. Yes I believe in math and am confused by those you refuse to accept empirical data while continuing overstate the likelihood of anything other than HRC being the nominee.
The Sanders camp is focused on overtaking HRC in the pledged delegate count at some point this summer. To achieve a majority of pledged delegates Bernie needs to eclipse 2026. He currently sits at 988. There are 1747 available pledged delegates remaining, however 41.3% of them come from the largest two states remaining, California and New York. Sanders is currently trailing significantly in those states, but lets make an assumption that he makes a large comeback and essentially splits the 722 delegates availble in those primaries. Where does that leave us?
The new numbers, if the two candidates split California and New York’s delegates down the middle would be:
Sanders: 1399
Clinton: 1587
With those states no longer on the board only 1025 pledged delegates would remain up for grabs. With target of 2026 Bernie would need to net 627, or 61.2%, to acheive his goal of winning a majority of pledged delegates and forcing the hands of superdelegates.
I would love to see a Sanders v Trump general election but I am still struggling to find a realistic path to victory for Bernie that doesn’t include the much hated superdelegates overturning the will of the electorate who, most likely, at the end of the primary season will have spoken on behalf of HRC
Splitting the delegates in NY and Cal, while raking up over 61% of everything else seems like a longshot. It is not impossible, but the idea that Sanders is tracking toward the nomination is hard to find anything but unlikely.