It’s too early to gauge any trends out of Super Tuesday, but Hillary Clinton has stretched out her lead a bit since the last polling update two days ago.
Clinton’s current 15-point net lead over Bernie Sanders is 1.1 points bigger than it was Tuesday, and 9.3 points higher than last Wednesday. The individual polls driving the aggregate haven’t changed much since Tuesday, just a new Ipsos/Reuters poll showing a Clinton 54-40 lead, compared to 49-44 back on 2/20-24. Let’s take a look at polling in the upcoming primary states:
There is relatively little polling in these races, so very few have enough to compile a composite. I will include only polling from February and March. The number in parenthesis is the number of delegates.
MARCH 5
Louisiana (59): Magellan, Clinton 61-14. PPP, Clinton 60-29
Given results in other similar states, this should be a Clinton blowout. Sanders must hit 15 percent statewide to earn any delegates. By percentage, Louisiana has the second-largest African-American population in the country, trailing only Mississippi (which votes a couple of days later, see below).
Nebraska (30): Nebraska is a caucus, and no one is stupid enough to destroy their reputation by trying to poll it. This should be easy Sanders territory. Barack Obama won it easily in 2008, 68-32.
[Update: sorry for leaving out the Great State of] Kansas (37): This caucus should be an easy Sanders victory.
MARCH 6
Maine (30): Another obvious victory for Sanders in a New England caucus state. Like Vermont, don’t be surprised if Sanders sweeps all the delegates.
MARCH 8
Michigan (147): Polling aggregate: Clinton 58.9-33.4.
Sanders is outspending Clinton in the state as he needs to keep it close to offset a big expected loss in Mississippi on the same night. So far, the polling isn’t giving his campaign much encouragement. The local Fox affiliate his polling the race, and their trendlines:
2/2-4: 57-28 Clinton
2/15: 60-27 Clinton
3/1: 61-33 Clinton
PPP has the most optimistic numbers for Sanders, having him down 50-40 in mid-February.
Mississippi (41): Magellan (R), Clinton 65-11. PPP, Clinton 60-26.
Clinton won next-door Alabama 78-19, which is 26 percent African American. Mississippi has an even larger African-American population, the largest (by percentage) in the country, at 37 percent. Clinton will be hoping to keep Sanders under the 15 percent viability threshold.
MARCH 15
Florida (246): Polling aggregate: Clinton 58.3-30.4.
It’s hard to see Sanders getting any traction if he can’t bust through his demographic ceiling. And right now, that ceiling is made of reinforced titanium.
Illinois (182): SIU, Clinton 51, Sanders 32
How come there isn’t more polling in Illinois? Regardless, diverse state, etc etc, I didn’t pull that 30 percent number out of my ass.
Missouri (84): Zero polling
At 84 percent non-Hispanic white (compared to the national average of 63), this should be competitive. But who knows, since no one with the means to poll it seems to care.
North Carolina (121): Polling aggregate: Clinton 52.7-33.0.
Southern state, diverse population, etc. Still, Clinton’s numbers here aren’t as gaudy as elsewhere in the South, perhaps a function of the large number of students in the state? But really, it’s all a matter of degree.
Ohio (159): Polling aggregate: Clinton 51.1-42.5.
So Ohio should be competitive, despite the most recent poll being a Q-poll showing Clinton up 55-40. It is 80 percent non-Hispanic white, relatively small number of Latinos and African Americans. Still, the polling isn’t reflecting that theoretical competitiveness.
I know the Sanders campaign says they’re going all the way to the convention, and there’s no reason not to. But if he hasn’t GAINED delegates on Clinton by March 15, it’ll be near-impossible mathematically for him to do so, particularly with additional southern states (KY, WV), New York, DC, PA and other Clinton-friendly states still on the docket. It was lame when Clinton hung on past her sell-date in 2008, and despite the ironic justice, it’ll be lame if Sanders does the same. I mean, he can continue on, but if his delegate deficit has only grown by March 15, it’ll be time to orient toward the general election and Donald Trump, regardless what Sanders decides to do.
REPUBLICANS
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, this says it all:
Trump has burst through his previous ceiling of 38 percent. He leads everywhere that has polling, even Ohio where he leads the state’s governor John Kasich 31-28 (with Cruz at 20 and Rubio at 7). In Marco Rubio’s Florida, Trump leads the Rubiobot 42-24.
And, that’s all the energy I have for the GOP side. I’m looking forward to having a united front against Trump, hopefully sooner rather than later.