The Marquette poll is out today and it’s indicating a fairly close race among likely voters in the badger state. Sanders is leading 49 - 45 and is poised for a victory in Wisconsin.
fox6now.com/...
Among likely voters in the Wisconsin Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Hillary Clinton, with 6 percent undecided.
If Sanders ended up winning this close, according to Nate Silver this would not be a very good result for him. According to Nate’s scenario, Sander’s will need at least a 16 point win in Wisconsin.
If Sanders falls behind, he'll need to make up ground in states like NY and CA.
Example: If Sanders wins Wisconsin by 10 and nets 48 delegates, he will still need 56.6% of the remaining 1661 delegates. That would be one less state and no real inroads made, with New York State to follow.
Sanders would hit his FiveThirtyEight's delegate target in my example, but in Nate’s scenario that finds an unlikely winning path for Sanders he needs to over perform.
In Nate’s scenario, he gives Sanders NY (+4), PA (+7) NJ (+6) and CA (+15). He does mention in the article if Sanders were somehow able to win like this, the entire dynamics of the race would change.
Check out his analysis at the link below. It’s worth reading.
fivethirtyeight.com/…
None of this is all that likely. Frankly, none of it is at all likely. If the remaining states vote based on the same demographic patterns established by the previous ones, Clinton will probably gain further ground on Sanders. If they vote as state-by-state polling suggests they will, Clinton could roughly double her current advantage over Sanders and wind up winning the nomination by 400 to 500 pledged delegates.
To repeat, these are not predictions. On the contrary, they describe a rose-colored-glasses scenario for Sanders that I consider to be very unlikely. To develop them, I started with our original pledged delegate targets for Sanders. Those already look optimistic for Sanders, who has underperformed his delegate targets in most primaries (he’s beaten them in most caucuses, but there aren’t many caucuses left on the calendar).
It’s not hard to imagine Sanders meeting these super-optimistic projections in a few of the states. But he’ll have to do so in all of the states, or else he’ll have even more ground to make up elsewhere. If he loses Wisconsin, for instance, or only narrowly wins it, that’s more votes he’ll need to win in New York or California.
After the Marquette poll was released, Hillary told Rachel Maddow she’s headed back to Wisconsin this weekend. They may see an opportunity to keep the margin of victory down in this state and that would be positive for the Clinton campaign.
I personally think Sanders is favored. He may even win by a larger margin and this wouldn't surprise me at all. Sanders needs a big win, preferably +16 or more.
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For folks who haven't seen it, the Clinton campaign has a great new ad that will be running in New York and it goes after Trump. It’s really good stuff and well done.