I know that to many math is evil, but I love it, even though it is not nice to my preferred candidate. In a reality based forum everyone should have the facts. Statistical probabilities are not facts, but they can be reliable indicators of what is most likely to happen.
Normally my models produce a most likely outcome of primary events. The following table is a deviation, as it is based on what the models calculate to be the best likely outcome for Bernie over the next 9 events. I hope he over performs. A lot.
State/Ter |
|
Pledged |
Sanders |
Clinton |
March 6 - 15th
Maine |
|
25 |
18 |
7 |
Michigan |
|
130 |
52 |
78 |
Mississippi |
|
36 |
10 |
26 |
N. Marianas |
|
3 |
3 |
3 |
Florida |
|
214 |
80 |
134 |
Illinois |
|
156 |
56 |
100 |
Missouri |
|
71 |
41 |
30 |
North Carolina |
|
107 |
47 |
60 |
Ohio |
|
143 |
62 |
81
|
The chances of Bernie over performing these numbers are very small. The result is -150 delegates on top of the 208 he is already behind. So, by the 15th, we will know where we stand.
Even if he meets these numbers, his path to victory is totally improbable.
Date |
|
State/Ter |
pledged |
Sanders |
Clinton |
Path to victory After March 15th
March 20th |
|
Democrats Abroad |
13 |
9 |
4
|
March 22nd |
|
Arizona |
75 |
45 |
30 |
|
|
Idaho |
23 |
14 |
9 |
|
|
Utah |
33 |
23 |
10 |
March 26th |
|
Alaska |
16 |
10 |
6 |
|
|
Hawaii |
25 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
Washington |
101 |
61 |
40 |
April 1st |
|
North Dakota |
18 |
12 |
6 |
April 5th |
|
Wisconsin |
86 |
57 |
29 |
April 9th |
|
Wyoming |
14 |
9 |
5 |
April 19th |
|
New York |
247 |
129 |
118 |
April 26th |
|
Connecticut |
55 |
35 |
20 |
|
|
Delaware |
21 |
13 |
8 |
|
|
Maryland |
95 |
54 |
41 |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
189 |
120 |
69 |
|
|
Rhode Island |
24 |
16 |
8 |
May 3rd |
|
Indiana |
83 |
52 |
31 |
May 7th |
|
Guam |
7 |
4 |
3 |
May 10th |
|
West Virginia |
29 |
19 |
10 |
May 17th
|
|
Kentucky |
55 |
35 |
20 |
|
|
Oregon |
61 |
41 |
20 |
June 4th |
|
Virgin Islands |
7 |
4 |
3 |
June 5th |
|
Puerto Rico |
60 |
35 |
25 |
June 7th |
|
California |
475 |
265 |
210 |
|
|
Montana |
21 |
14 |
7 |
|
|
New Jersey |
126 |
73 |
53 |
|
|
New Mexico |
34 |
19 |
15 |
|
|
South Dakota |
20 |
13 |
7 |
June 14th |
|
DC |
20 |
11 |
9 |