Are there Carter Republicans or Rockefeller Republicans? are they tRumpites? But more importantly, do they swing?
Even in polling, some 3% of Republicans polled still refer to themselves as “Liberal”. It could even be argued that Hillary Clinton supporters in their identification with the Bill Clinton administration come from that population — certainly specific sox/rux discourse exhibits some ideological indicators of that POV particularly in contrast with the Bernie Sanders democratic socialist message.
Swing voters often reinforce their identities as so-called “independents” rather than simply indecisive voters or “late-deciders”, the latter more operative in analysis of recent GOP primary voting.
Whether Reagan Democrats or Rockefeller Republicans, they are not necessarily the key to the election but certainly but have their room keys in the bowl. And The Donald does exhibit some features of a definite non-paleoconservative Republican RWNJ.
I stumbled blindly on the Rockefeller clue in the spring of 1976 and I admit I didn't know what to do with it when I found it. The first crucial observation was that Jimmy Carter, altogether the smartest strategist and most compelling campaigner in a poor primary field, had no base in the Democratic Party and little prospect of getting one. He was a former right to-work governor in a labor-bossed party, from a state that hadn't voted Democratic for President in sixteen years; a rural southern WASP in a party (presidentially speaking) of northern urban ethnics; and a stranger, it seemed, to the several power establishments representing Jews, the congressional barons, foreign policy types, liberals, and the rest—that even in revised manuals were supposed to count for a lot. He bragged, of course, that he was indeed an uninitiated New Boy and that his outsiderhood would attract a new and unconventional base.
To build a baseline model of the 2016 presidential election, we started with the results of the 2012 election, looking at support for Mitt Romney vs. President Obama by five demographic groups:
- whites with college degrees,
- whites without college degrees,
- African-Americans,
- Latinos and
- Asians/others.
We then adjusted the size of those demographic groups based on four years of population change. From there, you can choose your own adventure: When you adjust each group’s national turnout and party breakdown, the Swing-O-Matic automatically recalculates each state’s election results, along with the outcome of the Electoral College and national popular vote.
Three swinging constraints:
1. A small shift in the national vote is all it would take for Republicans to break through Democrats’ supposed “Blue Wall.”
2. The power of the Latino vote is frequently overstated.
3. Sky-high African-American support and engagement is crucial for Democrats.