Congratulations to both the candidates on last night’s victories and a very special congratulations to Bernie Sanders for his upset in Michigan. Now on to the math.
Hillary Clinton began yesterday with a +199 pledged delegate advantage. She won Mississippi. Sanders won Michigan. Clinton missed her delegate target in Michigan by -2 and Sanders exceeded his target there by +2. Since Clinton overperformed in Mississippi by +28, she actually increased her pledged delegate lead by +20!
Clinton currently leads the pledged delegate count by +219. (770 - 551)
FiveThirtyEight will tweak their totals, as the vote is confirmed. This estimate could be adjusted a couple of delegates either way in the following days.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Barack Obama, in 2008, never had a pledged delegate lead that was this large and keep in mind, Hillary did win big states like after PA and OH after Obama amassed his lead. Unless Sanders starts winning with larger margins, in delegate rich states, the math isn't on his side.
Having said that, it takes nothing away from Senator Sanders victory. It was huge for his campaign, unexpected and helps him with narrative for sure. But winning states like Michigan by +2 isn't adding enough delegates to his total. Realistically, Sanders will have to win some of these upcoming states on March 15 by blowout type numbers to cut into Clinton’s deficit. That’s tough hurdle for sure.
Hillary is still in great shape. It will be very interesting to see where the candidates spend their time and money this week, then we'll get a real sense which states the campaign's think are in play. I'm looking forward to March 15.