As, we all know, Sanders pulled perhaps the greatest upset in modern political history by winning Michigan. While it certainly means he has more delegates, it means something bigger: We have to consider the possibility that the pollsters don’t know how to measure this election.
The deep south is done voting, Sanders has a very, very favorable calendar after March 15, and he may show much unexpected strength in the rust belt.
Last night, Nate Silver tweeted “If Sanders wins MI tonight, it will break Gary Hart's record in 1984 NH for greatest upset vs. final polling aveage.(sic)” He also tweeted, “Sanders is winning 30% of the black vote in MI, per exit polls. Makes a huge difference versus getting 10% or 15%”
It really looks like Clinton’s strength with African American voters is not as pronounced outside of the south, and the deep south is done voting.
I don’t have a link at this time, but I heard that Sanders won 49% of the African American millennial vote in Michigan. If that is true, that shows he might be gaining some unexpected traction with them, which would dramatically increase the likelihood of him winning.
I’m not a pollster and I don’t have all the data, but my gut instinct is that when the millennials realized they would have to show up to make Sanders happen, they started showing up. I believe there might be a sort of hyper-motivation effect that pollsters just don’t know how to measure. As we know, they have trouble measuring millennials anyway.
In any case, I think at this point, we just have to say that all we know is we don’t know, and it’s anyone’s game.