Random thoughts and musings on the state of the Democratic (and Republican) race:
- Big winner of the night? Bernie Sanders. Yeah, Hillary Clinton netted more delegates, and Sanders’ math problems aren’t resolved, but he found new purpose to stay in the race by dealing Clinton a stunning upset.
- The equation would’ve been the same even if Sanders had lost by 1.5 points (instead of winning by that margin). Fact is, the polling composite had Clinton leading 57-39, so significantly cutting into that margin would’ve been a victory. But outright winning? No pollster came remotely close to calling this one. That had far more value than whether Sanders or Clinton squeezed out an extra 5-10 delegates.
- A big reason for the upset—the youth vote actually turned out! Per the exit polls, they made up 21 percent of the electorate, a larger percentage than 65+ (20 percent). The only state to match that level of youth turnout was Texas, but that vote went 64-34 to Sanders, while the Michigan youth vote went 81-18 Sanders. That was the difference, by far.
- There is still a demographic ceiling—Sanders lost the Michigan black vote 65-31, but that was a heck of a lot better than Mississippi’s 89-11 loss.
- All that said, Clinton was also a big winner on the evening. She gained 87 total delegates on the night compared to Sanders’ 69, a net gain of 18. His delegate deficit is now 214 (760-546). Running even with Clinton doesn’t get him closer to the nomination. It actually puts him further away, as there are now two fewer states on the calendar.
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Still, the Michigan results certainly cast doubt on the validity of the Super Super Tuesday polling showing Clinton leading big in Ohio, Illinois, Florida and North Carolina. (We haven’t seen any polling out of Missouri). While Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina still appear to be strong Clinton states on demographics, Ohio shares the same industrial outlook as Michigan but is less brown. A Sanders victory there suddenly seems plausible.
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Sanders knew Michigan was a do-or-die state, and he spent lavishly to get to where he did. I haven’t seen final advertising numbers, but he was leading in the ad wars earlier this week. And, of course, that was a smart strategy. Losing big to Clinton last night would’ve been devastating. Now, he lives to fight another day, knowing that his supporters will dump another $10 million in his coffers for the next battle. It works! The one problem is that it requires him to choose his battles carefully, thus ceding Mississippi completely to Clinton (and almost failing to hit the 15 percent viability mark, which would’ve cost him another four delegates).
- How much do you want to bet that the Sanders campaign didn’t show them winning Michigan? Sanders’ half-assed press conference looked hastily put together, and even took place before the big urban precincts came in (just in case he eventually went on to lose the evening). It also looked like Sanders had been woken up from sleep. He didn’t take any questions. This wasn’t something the campaign had planned for.
- Is there any complacency on the part of Clinton supporters? If so, this should boost her turnout next week. Sanders’ peeps certainly have reason to turn out—the chance to deliver another stunning upset. It certainly makes next Tuesday extremely exciting.
- On the GOP side, Marco Rubio claims he’s still in it because of Florida. He’ll drop out this week because of Florida. No one likes to lose their home state, and Rubio has lost all rationale for his candidacy. About the only reason he might want to stay in is to help Donald Trump, hoping to get the VP slot. It’s obviously easier for Trump to win a four-way race than a three-way race. In any case, it matters little. Trump will win regardless.
- Michigan’s GOP polling composite had it Trump 39, Cruz 21, Kasich 19, Rubio 14. The results were Trump 37, Ted Cruz 25, John Kasich 24, Rubio 9. So Cruz and Kasich outperformed expectations, Trump slightly underperformed.
- Trump did handily outperform the single poll in Mississippi, and no one expected him to win Hawaii. So all in all, a great night for Trump, and a great night precisely when the punditry was declaring him wounded and vulnerable. Just one week ago:
- Trump has peaked as much as Clinton has peaked. They’re both still the prohibitive favorites for their nominations, and their opponents have to make serious moves next week or face The Math. Trump did show vulnerabilities last week, and Clinton showed some last night. But “vulnerability” doesn’t mean squat if it doesn’t cut into their big delegate leads.
- To be clear, both Clinton and Trump face different levels of hardship ahead. Democratic contests all award their delegates proportionately, so it’s much harder for Sanders to make big delegate gains. And with just two candidates, Clinton doesn’t have to worry about entering the convention with a plurality of delegates. Republicans are transitioning to winner-take-all contests, so delegate counts can shift dramatically overnight, and with all three wings of the party showing viability (tea party/Trump, religious right/Cruz, and establishment/Kasich), Trump has a very real chance of falling short of 50 percent of delegates. And wouldn’t a brokered GOP convention be fun?
- And how about Kasich? His entire strategy was “don’t drop out, even though no one gives a shit I exist.” And it worked! I still think Scott Walker would’ve been their presumptive nominee if he had had the fortitude to stick with it. But running for president is hard, so I actually don’t blame him for saying fuck it. But I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where Kasich was more viable than Walker, had the Wisconsin governor stayed in the race.
- So what now? On Thursday the Virgin Islands caucus for the GOP, on Saturday the GOP gets caucuses from DC, Guam, and Wyoming. The Dems’ only contest that day is Northern Mariana Islands, also a caucus. Then we go to super-super Tuesday. I can’t wait!