There are three major candidates for the Democratic nomination for Senate in PA. Let’s start with a wonky one-paragraph bio of each, from my experience and viewpoint:
Katie McGinty is Governor Wolf’s former chief of staff and a party apparatchik with a lot of friends in the state and national Democratic machinery. Former Gov, Ed Rendell, who wields a decent amount of influence within the state party, and Philly party boss Bob Brady, both urged her to run. She actually ran against Wolf in the primary for Governor and got waxed. So you can bet a paycheck that the Powers That Be reassured her that she would get the help she needs to beat Sestak, because…
Joe Sestak’s been running for this seat for 6 years. Literally. Pretty much the day after he lost to Toomey (by running a pretty lame campaign, by all accounts) in 2010, he started regrouping and focusing his efforts on winning this seat. He has worked hard to get gobs of earned media in many local markets, from his “walking across the state” stunt to holding forums on {veterans affairs, foreign policy, healthcare, you name it}, Sestak has been fundraising non-stop while spending very little. Then theres…
John Fetterman is the mayor of Braddock, a small city outside of Pittsburgh that used to be a thriving steel town decades ago. When Fetterman was elected, the town was a black hole of poverty, unemployment, and crumbling buildings. You could, literally, buy houses on your Visa card. He’s been the chief-cook-and-bottle-washer of a modest but obvious recovery in Braddock. Now you’ll find some arty spaces and a growing small business environment. The place is still a dump in some parts of town, and you don’t need a black AmEx to buy some of the low-end housing, but it’s very obviously a nicer place to live than it was. Fetterman rightly gets 99% of the credit. You can find a couple of nice features on Braddock that give you a bit more background on Fetterman if you check YouTube. The guy is Harvard educated and looks like a biker. He’s definitely interesting.
Okay, so those are the folks from which to pick. Now here are some thoughts about them.
I know more about Sestak than the others because he was my Congressman in PA-07 and I did some volunteer work for his campaigns back then. He supported Hillary back in ‘08, along with everyone else in the party, but lost his party support by taking out Arlen Specter in the 2010 Senatorial primary. The fence never got mended. My best guess is that they asked Sestak to step back and let someone else have a crack at Toomey in 2016 and Joe said, “No.” He’s made a point in fund-raising e-mails to mention that he doesn’t and won’t fall in line with what the party bosses want. The good news for us is that Sestak is reliably progressive on every issue (that I’m aware of).
In addition to being a thorn in the side of the party power brokers, Sestak has a reputation as a taskmaster and borderline tyrannical boss. He brags routinely, and rightly, that his congressional office led the legislative branch in handling constituent requests. It was great for Jane Doe voter; the staff worked magic for many people in the district. But turnover was a problem because he expected folks to work 7 days a week, so I hear.
In my opinion, Sestak’s a step too ambitious for his own good. He ran against Specter as a 2-term Congressman in a swing district. He was very popular locally and could have held the 7th for many years, even after it was gerrymandered in 2010. He wasn’t going to lose; his military credentials and that consituent service made him plenty popular with independents and moderate (R)s. I do understand why he primaried Specter, but he left the party in the lurch in PA-7. There has been no credible threat to win the seat back from the Republicans since he left. The party’s more upset about his losing the Senate race, but if you are skeptical of Sestak, looking at his abandonment of PA-7 won’t allay your suspicion.
McGinty is largely unknown through the state. That’s changing in a big way because the party machinery is drenching the airwaves with Meet Katie type ads. She’s the real establishment candidate from start to finish and, if she wins the seat, will be a reliable vote for the party leadership in the Senate. I’m sure she can’t be any more moderate than our other Senator (Casey), who is as bland as oatmeal and not pro-choice. Katie is more liberal than that, but only time will tell if she’s going to be a true progressive. One thing that is apparent to anyone who has watched the debates, is that she is smart. She will not be an empty suit.
Fetterman has made it clear that he is a progressive voice and wants to be the choice of people who are ready to upset the applecart. It’s a real underdog campaign, because, frankly, Sestak kind of has that angle cornered, having spent the past 5+ years running against the party leadership and doing the whole “direct to the populus” schtick. Fetterman has the advantage of being a visible executive with some track record of success. He’s also articulate and serious, with a firm grasp of the issues. His major problem is that Braddock is the size of your living room and only 1% of the state even knows who he is. (Yeah, I made up the 1% but you get the idea.) I bet 95% or more of the voters in Philadelphia don’t know Braddock exists, much less who the mayor is there. (Yeah, I made up the 95%, too.) If, by some miracle, he wins the nomination, there will be a BIG job to get the rest of the state to learn about him.
Look — we have three decent candidates and any of them can beat Toomey. God, I certainly hope so. Right now, Sestak has name recognition and a double-digit lead over McGinty. We’ll see what happens after a couple of million dollars worth of Katie hits the media. One thing worth noting is that the McGinty ads didn’t start airing until this week — the last week of March. So they only have 4 weeks of pounding the message until voters’ eyes & ears bleed. It’ll be tough for the McGinty campaign to hit Sestak and Fetterman on the issues because all 3 candidates are sane and a lot of the differences among them are nuances. As you know from the Election Digest diary this week, BHO and Biden have endorsed Katie. That’s probably how the McGinty campaign will play — “Hey, I’m the endorsed candidate, aka the REAL Democrat.” And let the voters conclude that Sestak/Fetterman are somehow lesser Dems.
Sestak’s up on the airwaves (also as mentioned in the Election Digest recently) but, personally, I don’t care for his “got your six” military jargon catch-phrase. Maybe it’ll play well with all the rednecks that he wants to reach in the General, but I can’t believe it’s going to help him get more Dem votes. Maybe it’s just important that he get his face in front of Ma & Pa Voter. It does cancel out some of the McGinty hammering.
Fetterman has a minimal budget and needs a lot of earned media to make a dent in the primary landscape. He’s a good guy and the state’s voters should give him a promotion from Mayor Of Braddock. It’s just not clear that Senator is the logical next step. He might have done better to run for state Senate or Congress. I like his style and his stance on the issues; he is a Daily Kos kind of guy. He deserves plenty of votes and politically aware progressives are loving his candidacy. It would be wise to recognize that he is unlikely to win the nomination unless he gets a super PAC to dump $2M into media buys for him.
And now I hope you know more than you did before about the candidates who are vying to bounce Senator Toomey to the unemployment rolls in November.
UPDATE: Thanks for the Community Spotlight, all! And I fixed the typos you spotted. Thanks for that, too!