2016 is turning out to be an amazing year in politics. Never before has such populists (Bernie, Trump) woken up the people. You can see it in the passion of the Bernie supporters, you can see it in the anger of the Trump supporters. Both parties are actively working against the populists that have invaded them (Bernie the Independent and Trump the Outsider).
But these two groups of supporters are showing that many many people are fed up with politics as usual. Both Bernie and Trump are getting people to be active and interested as they see someone who represents the people versus big money.
The left says the DNC has sold out to the third-way branch, the right says the GOP has sold out to the GOPe (GOP elite). Both speak to the fact that it is time for the mega-multinational corporations to stop ruling the people through their puppets. The people are beginning to wake up and notice.
As of now the Democratic party can get out in front of this and elect our own populist, Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders stands for the progressive values of the left and has a very good track record of sticking by his convictions. A populist for the people from a stance of hope and acceptance.
Our other nominee, HRC is a typical politician in the eyes of the people. This is the perception. There are many negative perceptions of HRC as is shown in national polling. These statements are true regardless if you believe otherwise. Perception is NOT necessarily reality, but politicians are judged on the perception of them. Should HRC win the nomination, she will most likely win in 2016.
With that established, going into 2020, we will have a candidate seeking her second term. Historical trends show that second term candidates NEVER receive as many votes. As such this is the first point I would make. I will acknowledge easily the same would be said and truthful of Bernie.
The next point is that after seeing how well populists do, it stands to reason a populist will emerge on the GOP side for 2020. Seeing the mis-steps of Trump, this new populist candidate (of which I will call Trump 2.0) will be a far more polished version of Trump.
This new candidate in 2020, Trump 2.0, will be able to have large coattails as the people will be even more hungry for a populist candidate. As 2020 is a census year, and we have seen the devastation wrought from the gerrymandering of 2010, this should worry us. We need to look towards the future (populists) especially in this new age where the major networks and print media don’t hold the sway they once did. Both parties have seen a push-back towards their respective political machines. This is not going to go away. The younger generation has more trust in regular people doing podcasts, blogs, etc. than traditional media (Note: Even the right has turned on Fox News to some extent). This works against the political machines of both parties. The younger generation will not see things the same way those of us who remember Reagan do. They hold less to political affiliation of a party and more to principles as they have seen the damage done under the “lesser of two evils” trope that has brought us to where we are today.
What we do, and who we nominate in 2016 will reverberate well beyond just the SCOTUS. What we do and who we nominate will determine the 2020 election, gerrymandering for another 10 years, and the face of populism and the party that will move that position into the forefront.
We either evolve as a party in 2016 (populism) or we risk being left behind in 2020. The choice is ours. Choose wisely.