After NY is done tonight the attention turns to the 5 states that vote in a week.
PPP just released their latest MD poll, and it is a great one for Hillary.
Hillary 58% Bernie 33%
Maryland Likely To Continue Momentum for Clinton
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton looks to be headed for a resounding victory, with 58% to 33% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton's key is that she's winning African Americans- who are likely to be close to 40% of the Democratic primary electorate- 70/25. She has a more narrow lead with white voters at 50/41. Clinton has large leads with both men and women, and this is an unusual state in that she's even up 48/43 with voters under 45 to go along with her 66/27 advantage with seniors. One other thing to Clinton's advantage is that 86% of her voters say they're firmly committed to her, compared to 65% of Sanders' who say the same for him. Clinton leads in every party of the state except Western Maryland, although it's closer in the Baltimore suburbs.
Clinton and Sanders both dominate general election match ups in the state. The Republican who comes closest to them is Kasich but he still trails Clinton 54/33 and Sanders 52/32. Trump (25/70 favorability) and Cruz (17/69) are incredibly unpopular and trail both Clinton and Sanders by more than 30 points. Clinton's up 61/28 on Trump and 58/24 on Cruz, while Sanders is up 60/29 on Trump and 62/24 on Cruz.
In the state of Maryland Hillary is up with AAs to the tune of 70% to 25%. She leads with voters under 45 years of age, no doubt that is due to the fact that while Bernie generally leads among young voters that is much less the case with minority youngsters and minority millennials.
Looking over the crosstabs, here:
- Hillary is viewed more favorable and less unfavorable by Maryland Democrats than Bernie.
- Hillary wins women by 55% to 34%, but men by an astounding 61% to 32%
- AAs view Hillary favorably to the tune of 73% to 18%, a net rating of +55%, while Bernie gets 63% to 27%, a net rating of +36%.
We also got some fresh data from California a couple of days ago:
In CA Hillary holds a 12% edge, according to the latest CBSNews poll:
Poll: Clinton keeps New York edge, leads Sanders in California
Clinton also leads in California, 52 percent to 40 percent. The primary will be held in June but the race for this large, final state already shows similar dynamics to what we've seen in many races so far, as perceptions of electability and effectiveness are propelling Clinton but she trails Sanders on measures like being seen as honest and trustworthy, and does much better with older voters than with younger ones.
Poll methodology here