While the House of Representatives is still a question mark for both parties, there is no denying the Senate is very much in play. The Tea Party class of 2010 is finally up for re-election and they face some very unfriendly territory given the stronger Democratic turnout that occurs in Presidential years. They managed to evade said turnout in 2010, but this is not 2010.
2016 will go down as one of the most bizarre elections in American history. Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President and these endangered incumbents aren’t touching him with a 10 foot pole. However, in a bit of irony, the same types of ads that were used to connect Democrats with President Obama in 2010 are likely to be used by Democrats to connect Republicans to Trump.
Republicans currently have a 54-46 edge in the Senate. There are 34 seats being contested this cycle. Republicans are defending 24 seats, while Democrats are only defending 10. That means Democrats need to win all of the seats they currently hold, plus four currently Republican-held seats. Assuming the Democratic nominee wins (which, let’s face it, they’re going to), the Vice President will then act as a tiebreaker. If somehow the Democrats were to lose the White House, they would need to gain 5 seats, but if they’re losing the White House then winning the Senate is probably out of the question anyway.
In this entry, I will discuss where Democrats can prevail and retake the chamber this November.
First, let’s talk defense. I currently rate the Senate contests in California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington as Safe Democratic. That leaves only Colorado and Nevada for Democrats to defend in November.
I also currently rate the Senate races in Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah as Safe Republican.
Defense: The are seats the party currently holds and must defend in 2016.
Colorado: Democratic Senator Michael Bennet managed to win narrowly despite a sad state of affairs for Democrats nationwide in 2010. Bennet has maintained a low profile in the Senate and is otherwise a mainstream liberal who rarely bucks his party and even served as the DSCC chairman for the 2014 cycle. Meanwhile, the Republican primary for the right to challenge Bennet is in chaos. The party had tremendous difficulty recruiting a strong candidate, and while the GOP had high hopes for state representative and Iraq veteran Jon Keyser, he's currently embroiled in controversy over whether his campaign used forged signatures to qualify for the primary ballot. Other candidates include rich guys Robert Blaha and Jack Graham, who have the ability to self-fund their campaigns but have thus far impressed no one, and El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn, who has raised very little money. Needless to say, whoever emerges from the primary will be a huge underdog against Bennet. Given the electoral climate, I would say Bennet wins comfortably. Bennet currently has a $12 million dollar war chest at his disposal, which is far ahead of any potential GOP challenger.
Nevada: This seat is being vacated by Harry Reid, and looks to be the only seat Democrats will have to spend considerable funds to hold. Democrats and Reid have united around former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, who will be the first Latina to serve in the Senate if she is successful. Unlike Colorado, Republicans aren’t letting this seat go out of their sights. After Gov. Brian Sandoval declined to run, Republicans got their next best candidate in Rep. Joe Heck. This seat will be competitive all the way to November. A cause for concern for Democrats is that while Obama was carrying the state in 2012, GOP Sen. Dean Heller managed to win narrowly over former Rep. Shelley Berkley. Berkley was a more flawed candidate than Masto, but it just shows how hard Democrats are going to have to work to win over ticket-splitters. Some optimism comes from what is happening at the top of the ballot. Numbers have shown the registered voting Latino population rising in Nevada likely due to Trump’s nasty rhetoric, which will only help Democrats down the ballot. Heck must first survive a primary with 2010 nominee and conservative firebrand Sharron Angle, though she doesn’t seem to have as much steam this cycle. I predict Heck will prevail in the primary and the result of this race will likely depend on just how terrible Trump performs in the state.
Top Pickup Opportunities: These are the party’s best chances of victory in 2016, and thus where most of the effort and funds should go towards.
Florida: Thanks to Sen. Marco Rubio’s failed bid for the White House, Democrats have a prime pickup opportunity in arguably the most competitive state in the country. Democrats have a primary between Reps. Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson. Murphy is a more centrist Democrat while Grayson claims to be the progressive choice in the race. However, Grayson has had a series of bad headlines recently, both from his messy, public divorce and money laundering activities. Because of this, the DSCC has sided with Murphy, and I tend to agree with them. Democrats can’t afford to let this seat slip because of a candidate with terrible personal baggage. Polls have indicated a tight primary fight, but I predict Murphy will win the primary due to all the national and local support he has. The Republican primary is even more messy. Reps. Ron DeSantis and David Jolly, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, defense contractor Todd Wilcox, and wealthy real estate developer Carlos Beruff are all vying for this seat. Polling has indicated that DeSantis, who is more of a Tea Party type, is the current frontrunner, but anything can happen between now and the August primary. Jolly and Lopez-Cantera are more establishment-type Republicans, but neither have really set the world on fire with their fundraising. Beruff and Wilcox both have the ability to self-fund, and they may need to after the lackluster fundraising numbers they produced in the last quarter. Democrats are hoping for either a DeSantis or Beruff victory as both candidates seem to be well to the right of the state. Indeed, Beruff recently made headlines after calling Obama an “animal”, and running ads to the racially charged tune of Trump. Murphy has outraised all of his opponents and currently has $7 million dollars, with his nearest opponent, DeSantis, at $4 million. Those war chests will lose some funds due to the competitive primaries, but in the end I think those two will be the nominees. I believe the Democratic nominee for President will actually improve on Obama’s 2012 margin in the state due to Trump being so unpopular in voter-rich South Florida, which Murphy will also benefit from. Murphy has experience winning in competitive turf as he held down a seat Mitt Romney actually carried in 2012, and he even won 60% of the vote in the Republican wave of 2014.
Illinois: GOP Senator Mark Kirk’s win here in 2010 was one of the biggest stings for Democrats, considering Illinois is an otherwise reliably blue state. This year, though, Democrats are back for redemption. They have a star recruit in Rep. Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq veteran and double amputee who lost both her legs when her Blackhawk was shot down. Duckworth has matched Kirk in fundraising every quarter, and has the support of many powerful unions and elected officials in the state. I am comfortable in saying that even if Democrats cannot win the Senate, they will still pickup this seat. Illinois went for Obama by a large margin, and I expect the Democratic nominee to match or improve on that margin depending on how badly Trump loses the state. The state is just too Democratic for Kirk to survive on his own terms, and the presidential race is going to effect what goes on down the ballot.
New Hampshire: GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte is another wave product of 2010. Ayotte has made a name for herself in the short time she has spent in the Senate. She has the reputation of a war hawk, and is often seen alongside fellow Senate war hawks John McCain and Lindsey Graham. Democrats landed their top recruit, popular Governor Maggie Hassan, to run against Ayotte. Ayotte will be tough to beat, but Hassan is not a newcomer to tough campaigns. She beat back well funded challengers in both of her gubernatorial races, and even survived the Republican wave of 2014. Polling has indicated a statistically tied race, and once again, will probably be determined by what is happening in the Presidential contest. Ayotte has culminated a large fundraising war chest over the past few years, but Hassan has actually outraised Ayotte the past two quarters. This race is a must-win for Democrats as they try to take back the Senate, but anything can happen, and New Hampshire voters are notorious for splitting their tickets. Ayotte does face a primary challenge from former State Sen. Jim Rubens, but his previous losses don’t inspire much confidence in his campaign.
North Carolina: GOP Senator Richard Burr has always been a victor of circumstance. Each cycle he has faced re-election has been a good year for his party, and he has won fairly comfortably. However, this cycle is not shaping up to be the best year to have an R next to your name. Burr has largely been an anonymous Senator, rarely making waves or introducing legislation. Recent polling has shown even after serving the state for almost 12 years, most North Carolinians have no idea who Burr even is. For their part, Democrats struggled to recruit a top tier challenger to Burr, and settled for a B-list candidate, former State Rep. Deborah Ross. Many analysts seemed to have written off her chances here, but I would remind people how a little-known state legislator named Kay Hagan toppled Elizabeth Dole here in a similar situation in 2008. Ross hauled in an impressive 7 figure fundraising quarter, so at least she is showing she is serious about unseating Burr. This race, like many others, will stick with the same pattern of reflecting what is going on atop the ticket. If Trump is losing the state, Burr is probably in trouble. Thanks to Burr’s anonymity, Ross should be able to portray him as out of touch and connect him as much as possible with Trump.
Ohio: GOP Senator Rob Portman will be tough to beat. However, given the swingy nature of Ohio, anything can happen. Democrats are running former Governor Ted Strickland, who was narrowly ousted in the 2010 wave by John Kasich. But many believe that was a reprimand on the party itself rather than anything Strickland actually did wrong. Strickland’s fundraising has been rather lackluster, but the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC are both spending big here in the fall to help him out. Portman must have the Midas touch, because he has a monstrous $18 million dollar war chest at his disposal, and he has already begun reserving air time for the fall. Strickland will have to try his best to connect Portman to Trump if he is to win. Strickland is also counting on winning some of the conservative voters in the eastern part of the state that he used to represent in Congress. Ohio is one of the swingiest states out there, so no party should be feeling good about this race up until all the votes are totaled.
Pennsylvania: GOP Senator Pat Toomey is another incumbent who will be hard to knock off. After a divisive three-way primary, Democrats have nominated former state EPA Secretary Katie McGinty, who ran a forgettable campaign for Governor last cycle but seems to have brushed up on her political skills since then. McGinty is very much David and Toomey is Goliath in this race. Toomey has a towering $20 million dollar war chest, while McGinty has only raised $4 million thus far, and a lot of that was spent to win her primary. McGinty will get a lot of help from outside groups, but still, Toomey is likely to dominate the airwaves thanks to his large funds. The Democratic nominee for President is likely to carry Pennsylvania, and the Democratic National Convention is being held in Philadelphia, so one has to wonder if McGinty can just ride the coattails of the nominee, no matter what Toomey does, because Trumpocalypse spares no one.
Wisconsin: GOP Senator Ron Johnson’s win in 2010 is something many political experts consider to be a fluke. Johnson has maintained negative approval ratings since he stepped into office, and for that reason I believe this seat is the next best pickup opportunity for Democrats aside from Illinois. Democrats are running former Senator Russ Feingold, who Johnson upset in 2010. Feingold was caught sleeping that year but this time around he seems to have awakened. Feingold and Johnson have matched each other in fundraising, both with about $11 million a piece. I believe Feingold will defeat Johnson rather comfortably as almost every poll seems to demonstrate. I predict even if Democrats cannot retake the Senate, they can still win this seat.
In the Hunt: These are seats where Republicans have a clear advantage, but a Democratic upset is plausible.
Arkansas: Arkansas is one of those unique states that has, in the past, elected Democrats even while voting for Republicans for President. Some would call this the Bill Clinton-effect. But, in recent years, the state has largely rejected the Democratic Party mainly because Obama is so unpopular there. GOP Senator John Boozman absolutely crushed former Senator Blanche Lincoln here in 2010. Arkansas also ousted former Senator Mark Pryor in 2014 by a similar margin. So why would Arkansas all of a sudden change its rightward direction? Well, Democrats are fielding a top tier recruit in U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge. Eldridge has matched Boozman in fundraising, and has already ran a scathing ad against Boozman connecting him to Trump. I predict the Democratic nominee for President will have a high single-digit loss here rather than Obama who lost by double digits. This will help Eldridge, who is hoping he can bring some of the conservative Democrats back into the fold. For now, Boozman has a clear edge, but depending on how the Presidential race goes, this could be the biggest upset of the cycle.
Arizona: GOP Senator John McCain is a household name in all of America thanks to his multiple Presidential bids, but in Arizona it’s for all the wrong reasons. McCain has terrible approval ratings in the state, largely due to voters believing he is out of touch and self-serving. Because of this he has a primary challenger, Tea Party-flavored State Sen. Kelli Ward, who has thus far impressed no one but could win the primary has a reprimand of McCain. No matter whether they are facing McCain or Ward, Democrats are prepared to contest this seat. They landed a star recruit in Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. Polling has shown a close race here, but McCain has always seemed to be vulnerable and then Republicans hold their nose and go back into his corner. Maybe with Trumpocalypse that won’t be the case? Kirkpatrick is a moderate Democrat who actually represents a large constituency of the Democratic-leaning Navajo nation. She actually speaks Navajo and has run ads in the Navajo language, so hopefully she can turn those voters out where other candidates could not. Kirkpatrick should also benefit from the rise in registered Latino voters thanks to Trump. This race is still up in the air, but McCain does have an edge thanks to the Republican-lean of the state.
Georgia: Not only is Georgia difficult for Democrats to win statewide, it’s nearly impossible. Georgia has a wonky rule where if no candidate obtains 50% of the vote plus one, the top two candidates go to a runoff. Obviously a low-turnout election two months afterwards is going to result in a Republican winning, because Democrats never turn out for the runoff in Georgia. The 2008 Senate race here when Republican Saxby Chambliss was held to 49% by Democrat Jim Martin on election day and then went on to win 57% in the runoff is a prime example. This means Democrats are going to have to give it all or nothing here in November if they are serious about putting this seat in play. GOP Senator Johnny Isakson is a rather inoffensive incumbent, but the state is becoming more diverse as the African American population grows larger. In 2014, Democrats got 45% of the vote in an otherwise terrible year, which is no small feat. But it wasn’t enough. This year they are hoping the Presidential nominee will carry the state and Isakson will become a victim of the Trumpocalypse. Democrats are running wealthy businessman Jim Barksdale, who is expected to largely self-fund his campaign. Which is good news for Democrats as they can dedicate funds elsewhere. Isakson has about $8 million in cash on hand. Barksdale has already loaned his campaign $1 million and we can expect more where that came from. This seat largely depends on what is going on with the Presidential race and if Barksdale can ride the Democratic nominee’s coattails, but Isakson has a clear advantage here, especially given the weird runoff scenario.
Indiana: This seat is being vacated by GOP Senator Dan Coats, and Democrats were counting on a repeat of 2012 where Republicans nominate a gaffe-prone candidate that was too conservative and the Democrat prevails, but it was not meant to be. Establishment-flavored Rep. Todd Young easily defeated Tea Partying Rep. Marlin Stutzman in the primary. The Democratic insurance candidate, former Rep. Baron Hill, is an underdog against Young, but not all hope is lost. Trumpocalypse should claim many victims, and Young could very well be one of them. There is also a competitive gubernatorial race that Democrats have a chance at winning, so Hill has the potential to ride several people’s coattails. Though I do not think he can win this race on his own accord, given his lackluster fundraising numbers. Hill has raised about $900,000 so far for this race, while Young has about $3 million. Hill is a moderate and is very similar to Senator Joe Donnelly who won here in 2012. While Young has a clear advantage in this race, I won’t count Hill out just yet. A lot will just depend on if the Democratic nominee is carrying the state, which is a similar situation to many of these races.
Iowa: Longtime GOP Senator Chuck Grassley has never had trouble winning in Iowa. In fact, he has never won with less than 65% of the vote since 1986. But this year is complicated. Grassley is chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which has refused to hold hearings for Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland. This has angered many voters nationwide and in Iowa. Whether or not it is the nail in the coffin for Grassley remains to be seen, but his continuing popularity in the state leads me to believe he has a clear advantage. The dust is not yet settled in the Democratic primary, though former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge has a clear financial advantage over State Sen. Rob Hogg and the backing of the DSCC. And her last name provides even more hilarity to Grassley’s predicament. Iowa will likely vote for the Democratic nominee during Trumpocalypse, so Grassley’s fate remains unclear but his popularity may save him. For now, Grassley is heavily favored, but this race will need to be reassessed once we get some polling for this race.
Kentucky: Kentucky has always been willing to elect moderate Democrats to state offices, but they are hesitant to do so at the federal level. Kentucky always flirts with the Democratic Senate nominee before always opting for the Republican nominee. Just ask Bruce Lunsford, Jack Conway, and Alison Lundergan Grimes. But, GOP Senator Rand Paul has made a name for himself in Congress, but not always for the right reasons. His embarrassing Presidential bid is marred by numerous zingers Trump sent flying his way, and since Kentucky voted heavily for Trump in the primary, one has to wonder if that effected Paul’s popularity. While I fully believe Paul has a clear advantage here, Democrats are fielding a credible candidate in Lexington Mayor Jim Gray. Gray is personally wealthy, and has already loaned his campaign almost $2 million dollars. However, Gray is more liberal than most Democrats in the state, and is actually an out gay man, though voters outside the Lexington area are probably unaware of that. I have no doubt Republicans will subtly make Gray’s sexuality an issue, it’s just a matter of if that backfires. I think Gray’s only hope is Paul’s personal unpopularity outweighing voters’ dislike for the national Democratic Party. If not, Paul will win.
Missouri: Missouri is a state that has elected Democrats to state offices and at the federal level despite voting for Republicans for President. GOP Senator Roy Blunt managed to win comfortably thanks to the 2010 wave, but this year he faces a tougher challenge. Democrats are fielding a rising star in the state, Secretary of State and Afghan War veteran Jason Kander. Blunt has a large $10 million dollar war chest. But Kander has fundraised well despite this being a sleeper race. He has $4.5 million on hand, which isn’t a bad haul. Blunt is considered one of the more corrupt members of the Senate after his long tenure in the House. If Kander wishes to be successful, he should paint Blunt as a creature of Washington. Blunt could also fall victim to Trumpocalypse if the Democratic nominee is carrying the state. Thanks to the elasticity of voters in this state, I believe this is the most likely pickup opportunity of all the contests that are In the Hunt. For now, Blunt has an advantage because of the Republican-lean of the state, but polling has indicated this race has the potential to be competitive, so no one should count Kander out yet.
Thank you for reading Part 2 of this series. To read Part 1 discussing House races, Click Here.
Stay tuned for Part 3 which will discuss gubernatorial and other state executive offices.