What do Minnesota, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Oregon, Illinois, Washington, California and Vermont have in common? They are probably the most Democratic States in the nation. Not only did they vote more Democratic in 1984 than the national average for President (Mondale got 40.56% of the vote): with the exception of Maryland (Agnew’s home state), they also beat McGovern's percentage of 37.5% in 1972. In 1996 , those same 13 states exceeded the percentage of the vote Clinton got nationally.
They garner the Democrats, if won, 195 Electoral College votes. Going into the Fall, the Democratic nominee will likely have these 13 states plus the District of Columbia in the win column.
Since 1992, the Democratic nominee has won those thirteen states and the District of Columbia plus Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, and Michigan….7 straight elections. If the trend continues…..30 more Electoral College votes. With 225 Electoral College votes, the Democratic candidate needs 43 Electoral College votes.
In 2004, one of the closest Electoral College contests felled John Kerry but Delaware, Maine, New Jersey, New Hampshire and Wisconsin all supported him. The GOP has not won these states in the past 6 presidential elections --— the GOP has not won Delaware, Maine, New Jersey, or New Hampshire since 1988 and Wisconsin since 1984. And its 35 Electoral College votes those states represent.
And what is left is six more states that have gone Democratic in the last two elections. Iowa has been in the Democratic column in 5 of the last six elections (except 2004), New Mexico the same (except 2004), Colorado 3 of the last 6 and its been won in the last two elections…….these 3 states while tenuous represent 20 more Electoral College votes….oh and 280.
So what is left…..three awesome political prizes Ohio (18), Florida (29), and Nevada (6) which seem to be true bellwether states (they have gone with the winner in the last 6 elections) and represent 33 bonus states for the Democrats. And of course Virginia (13) and North Carolina (15) represent very purple states where presidential-election wise….neither are sure things and may remain states that must be defended by the GOP and losing them is costly….28 EC votes costly.
The lesson…...we have 270 votes in our pocket and a good shot at even more. And the GOP has 204 votes it can probably call sure things but Arizona, Missouri and Georgia have been edging closer to being Democratic.
If we run the table with everything Blue States, Swing States (IA, NM, & CO), Bellwether States (OH, NV, & FL) and the new Purple States (VA & NC), it adds up to 341 and who knows what a landslide that brings…….
If there is a lesson here, we need to devote every resource we have to registering and protecting the right to vote.