Over the weekend, ex-Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli announced that he would not run for governor next year. Cuccinelli’s decision undoubtedly comes as a big relief to GOP strategists. Cuccinelli was Team Red’s 2013 nominee, and while he came close to beating Democrat Terry McAuliffe, his extreme socially conservative record and at times weird campaign (remember that half-hour long campaign ad that only a few brave souls dared to watch?) gave McAuliffe a major boost.
However, another Republican close to the Old Dominion’s far-right contingent sounds ready to fill the void. Corey Stewart, the chair of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, tells the Associated Press that he plans to kick off a bid in October. Stewart is Donald Trump’s Virginia campaign chair, and he’s also made a name for himself by bashing undocumented immigrants. Even though Stewart made his announcement around the same time that Cuccinelli made his plans clear, Stewart was not about to defer to the former attorney general: Stewart took the time to accuse Cuccinelli of now being a member of the hated GOP establishment. (Also, why Stewart would announce his 2017 plans in October at the height of the 2016 election cycle is beyond us.)
Two other notable Republicans, ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie and Rep. Rob Whitman, have also made it clear that they intend to run to succeed the termed-out McAuliffe. (Whitman is still seeking re-election to his red House seat this fall.) Gillespie came shockingly close to beating Democratic Sen. Mark Warner in 2014, and plenty of influential Republicans think he’ll be able to beat a less intimidating Democrat next year. However, Republicans will hold a nomination convention rather than a primary to select their standard bearer. Conventions tend to be dominated by delegates who care more about ideological purity than electability, and they’re notoriously difficult to predict.
It’s very possible that someone like Stewart will be more appealing to the delegates over a longtime Washington insider like Gillespie or the pretty low-key Whitman. Still, Stewart lost the 2013 nomination for lieutenant governor to little-known minister E.W. Jackson, so this may still not be a good venue for him. And as the Stewart-Cuccinelli dust-up demonstrates, the far right is far from a monolithic block. There’s also a chance that someone else runs and scrambles the calculus. The Democratic field looks like it will be a lot less eventful. Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam is running and Attorney General Mark Herring, who looked like his most-likely rival, has already decided to seek re-election rather than challenge him.