There has been a lot of talk about a “contested convention” with many people wondering how that will be possible if Clinton clinches the nomination before the convention.
Based on what has been bouncing around the blogosphere as well as statements coming out of the Sanders’ campaign, it has become clear what Bernie’s strategy is to still win the Democratic nomination for President even though he will have lost the pledged delegate count, the super delegate count, the popular vote and total number of states.
In effect, Bernie is planning a coup d’etat (or coup de convention if you will).
Bernie’s strategy rests totally on the Super Delegates and on the time remaining between the end of the primaries and the convention.
The first part of the strategy is simple; keep Clinton from clinching the nomination or keep her clinching number to as low as possible. Part of this strategy is to sow the idea that even if Clinton does clinch, it will be invalid or illegitimate. For this reason, Sanders is making the ludicrous claim that unless Clinton clinches with nothing but pledged delegates, she hasn’t “really won”. As well, it is the reason he and his surrogates continue to engage in Conspiracy Theories of a “rigged game.” It is vital that the legitimacy of Clinton’s win be kept an open question.
As well, it is vital to Sanders’ strategy that he is within winning numbers with Super Delegates. If Sanders is still too far away to win even with Supers, then his strategy has failed. He cannot go into the convention with 100% of super delegates yet still be behind in the number needed to win. For this reason, he must continue to campaign as madly as possible; throwing the kitchen sink at Clinton in every single remaining primary. He must capture as many remaining available delegates as possible to stay within the win margin with Super delegate support.
Once the primaries are over, the second part of Bernie’s strategy begins. He and his supporters will go to work on the Super Delegates as hard as possible up to the day of the convention to get as many of them as they can to switch from Hillary to him. The overall goal of this is to push Clinton below the clinching number and keep her win an open question. This campaign is in fact already ongoing. After the end of the primaries, if Bernie still has a shot of winning if the Supers (or enough of them) switch to him, this campaign will be ramped up into overdrive.
At the convention, the final phase of the strategy takes place. At this point, it will be vital for Clinton to be below the clinch number. This will give Bernie a legitimate reason to contest the results. The first vote will take place and if Sanders can prevent Clinton from winning on the first ballot, he and his supporters can go to work on the pledged delegates. Part of that strategy will involve a heavy use of his most ardent supporters to be as vocal and aggressive as possible in demanding Bernie be made the nominee “or else.” The Bernie or Bust “movement” will play a big role here.
The goal of the strategy will be to keep Clinton from winning on each ballot, even if Bernie doesn’t wing. The plan would be to gradually start peeling away Clinton’s support in each successive ballot until eventually, enough Supers and Pledged delegates realize that Clinton does not have the support needed and switch to Bernie. Bernie then wins and becomes the nominee.