It has been and continues to be a grueling nomination fight between Hillary and Bernie. In contrast to the Republican side, we started out with fewer candidates and they were for the most part respectful of one another; and yes, even now as we're a little over a month away from the final primary contest things are still pretty cordial. This diary is as much for me to take stock in the campaign so far as it is for anyone who would take the time to scan over it. All the delegate numbers below were taken from the Green Papers site (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/). The numbers differ a bit from other sites and they differ slightly from different pages on the Green Papers' own site but these numbers are perfect for checking in on the state of the race just after or just before a primary contest.
There are 4765 total Democratic delegates available in this year's nominating contest. A simple majority of 2383 delegates wins you the nomination. There are 4051 pledged delegates in this year's nominating contest. To get a simple majority of pledged delegates you need to win 2026 delegates from the primary contests. In 2008's active and strenuous nominating campaign, once Obama passed the simple majority of pledged delegates for that year (1627 pledged delegates), enough super delegates announced their support for his candidacy that the nominating contest effectively ended with enough support to push him over the total delegates mark to secure the nomination (after the Oregon and Kentucky primaries on May 20, 2008). At that point, there were only three primary contests left.
Fast forward to 2016 and we're seeing another spirited contest. Hillary currently has 1704 pledged delegates while Bernie currently has 1414 pledged delegates from the primary contests. There are 933 pledged delegates left to allocate in the remaining 13 primary contests this year. There are a few other apt comparisons to make with the 2008 nominating contest. With 12 primaries remaining in 2008, Clinton and Obama split those contests with each taking six states/territories to finish off the primary calendar. With 12 primaries left in 2016, I can see Bernie winning eight of the last 12 states/territories to finish off the primary calendar. More comparisons with 2008:
With 12 contests left:
2008:
Obama - 1554.5 pledged delegates
Clinton - 1397.5 pledged delegates
Difference of 157 pledged delegates
Remaining states:
*South Dakota
*Montana
*Puerto Rico
*Oregon
*Kentucky
*West Virginia
North Carolina
Indiana
Guam
Pennsylvania
Mississippi
Wyoming
2016:
Clinton - 1704 pledged delegates
Sanders - 1414 pledged delegates
Difference of 290 pledged delegates
Remaining states:
Washington, DC
*South Dakota
North Dakota
New Mexico
New Jersey
*Montana
California
*Puerto Rico
Virgin Islands
*Oregon
*Kentucky
*West Virginia
* - denote states/territories that are common in both the 2008 and 2016 primaries
With 12 contests left in 2008, we were on March 8, 2008 with a nominating calendar that ran through June 3, 2008. That is a very stretched-out calendar. You'll recall that Super Tuesday in 2008 was actually very super, with 24 states/territories voting that day. With 12 contests left in 2016, we will be on May 10, 2016 with a nominating calendar that runs through June 14, 2016. Super Tuesday in 2016 consisted of 13 states/territories, thereby allowing the formation of a number of "super" Tuesday's this year.
Let's stick with the "12 contests left" benchmark for a bit longer. In 2008, with 12 contests remaining, 700+ delegates (~16%) were left to allocate in the states/territories listed above. This year, with 12 contests remaining, there are 1000+ delegates (~22%) left because California has yet to vote this year. And if we're going by calendar dates, on May 6, 2008 roughly 94% of the total delegates had been allocated; whereas by May 7, 2016 roughly 77% of the total delegates will have been allocated (again because of California's vote coming in June). One last thing to note in all these numbers. Bernie needs 969 pledged delegates to cross the 2383 nomination threshold. And yet, there are only 933 pledged delegates left to allocate from the remaining states/territories yet to vote. Hillary is the only candidate left who could possibly get to that 2383 threshold with only pledged delegates.
All of this is just my way of saying: Bernie supporters, take all the time you need... . For me, the nominating contest has been settled for a while now. You may not want to hear it, but Kos was right. By the middle of March, with a proportional delegate allocation system and with so many super delegates already declaring support for her (although they can still switch at any time), Hillary was on the way to the nomination. I've read countless pro-Bernie diaries and comments declaring why he should stay in the race but for me it's pretty simple why he should remain until the final nominating votes in Washington, DC. At this point in the race, there's almost a quarter of the delegates and around that proportion of the primary electorate left to vote. And with the end of the primary calendar so close at hand, why shouldn't he stay in. Bernie has declared that he will not do or say anything that will damage Hillary to the extent that she will not be able to beat Trump in November. Of course he won't. We're all on the same team, after all. And I have no doubt Bernie will campaign as hard as anyone to ensure that Democrats retain the White House this year.
So in the interests of starting the Peace Train on its way this year, to all my fellow Hillary supporters, you're going to see a slew of diaries and comments pertaining to the upcoming primary losses we'll bear in states like Oregon or Montana. There will be diaries reiterating why Bernie should remain in the race (e.g., to get his message out, to continue receiving media attention, to excite the Democratic base, to perpetuate his fundraising, etc.). I'm begging you... please be cordial. Hillary is the presumptive nominee even though she refuses to use that moniker. There is nothing that Bernie can do or say that will damage her for the fall election (and that's not his goal anyway). Give these folks, who make up a huge swath of the GOS userbase, the time they need to pivot to the general election as well. Some may never do so and we can see that from looking at the various Clinton supporters from 2008 who never made the switch to Obama. The vast majority will make the switch. We'll miss those people who won’t or can’t and maybe after the election they'll return home but they need the space to make up their own minds. Surely this diary won’t convince them and nothing you say can convince them either.
And to the Bernie supporters out there, you've endured the endless march of Hillary polling diaries and math diaries (like this one) like champs. You may think this entire diary is pretty damn condescending but I assure you that's not my goal. Bernie has said that the nominee will be the person who earns 2383 delegates in this primary election and he's absolutely right. And with very little chance of Hillary passing the 2383 total delegate threshold with only pledged delegates, both sides will need a healthy dose of super delegates to push them past the mark. I expect Bernie to campaign vigorously until the Washington, DC contest and then I have no idea what he'll do. But starting from now (or actually a few weeks ago), you will see a slow trickle of diaries and comments involving Hillary's pivot to the general election. Please do not take this as an insult to Bernie. It's not! It's simply the recognition that the Republicans have their nominee in hand (whether they want him or not) and we will be forced to parry and counterattack before our own nominating contest is settled; which it won't be until late June.
Bernie supporters, take all the time you need... but we want you back and we need the help of as many of you as we can get. We can't win the general election without you and we certainly cannot take back the US Senate and make a huge dent in the GOP majority in the House without you. We need each other. And if you see this incremental change guy being less than cordial in any diary, just drop me a line and let me know and I’ll try to be better too.