The race for control of the U.S. Senate has been front and center almost as much as the Presidential primaries, for obvious reasons. Even if Merrick Garland is confirmed this year, the next President is almost certainly going to appoint one, if not as many as three justices, casting the lean of the court for the next generation. Voting rights, LGBT equality, Citizens United, discriminatory abortion laws, all will be shaped and affected by the next court.
We all know the simple math. 2016 is the Republican 2014. They have 24 seats to defend as opposed to only 10 for the Democrats. And several of the Republican seats being defended are “surge” seats from 2010, Republicans holding office in traditionally “blue” states. The Republican party is well aware of the difficulties of the Senate electoral map this year, and are already scrambling to shore up their defenses.
But now, there are starting to be some early estimates of the way that the map is shaping up. And there are some surprises. The site 270towin.com has an excellent interactive map for the 2016 Senate races, along with early predictions of how the 36 races will come out. It is fun to use, and easy to read.
On the Democratic side, the overall outlook is very promising. Of the 10 Democratic seats on the ballot, 8 of them are listed as “Safe” Democratic. The only two contested seats are Michael Bennet’s seat in CO, which is listed as “likely” democratic, and retiring Harry Reid’s seat in NV which is listed as a “toss up” between Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican congressman Joe Heck, although everybody’s favorite whack-a-mole Sharron Angle has popped her head back up out of her hole to challenge Heck for the nomination. I can’t see her prevailing this time around, but she is going to force Heck to spend time and money on her that he’d rather spend on the general election. So, holding up our side looks promising so far, but God knows we can’t be complacent.
The Republican side of the map is much more turbulent. They are only listing 12 of the 24 seats on the GOP side in the “safe” Republican column. Of the remaining 12 seats, there are dark clouds on their horizon. McCain of AZ, Blount of MO and Burr of NC are all only listed as “leans” Republican. And Rubio’s open FL seat as well as Ayotte in NH, Portman of OH and Toomey of PA are all listed as “toss ups”. The best part of all is that incumbent seats held by Kirk of IL, and Johnson of WI are now showing as “leans” Democratic. If that holds true, then we already have 40% of the 5 seats we need to get the Senate back.
There are several very interesting scenarios there to my mind. Kelly Ayotte is in for a knock down, drag out fight with a popular Governor Maggie Hassan. Toomey is trying to defend his seat in a traditionally “blue” state against a fresh face, Katie McGinty. And Portman in OH had a brutal tussle with Strickland the last time, and I don’t see this one being any easier.
The “Trump Factor” has the possibility to be very influential in at least two of these races. Both Maggie Hassan and Katie McGinty can benefit from the women’s outrage at Trumps sexist rants if they can tie their opponents to him. Both Ayotte and Toomey has stated they will “support” the candidate, but will not “endorse” him at this point, so the opportunity is there. Portman has said the same thing, but Trump lost in OH in the primary to Kasich, it will be interesting to see how much of a drag Trump is there on the down ballot ticket.
For my money, the two easiest flips wold be McCain in AZ and Burr of NC. John McCain has a primary to survive first, but even if he does, the demographics are finally going to catch up with him. Nothing will drive registration and turnout among Hispanic Americans quite like a virulent racist at the top of the ticket. And the fact of the matter is that McCain I believe has finally worn out his welcome with his constituents. Burr has a twofer to deal with. Not only will Trump drive up the Hispanic and African American turnout, but his states idiotic anti LGBT law will drive up turnout in the LGBT, liberal, and sane “moderate” voters, who are already licking their chops at the thought of McCrory having to run for re-election in 2017.
So, there you have, my simple input and analysis. Make no mistake, we all have to bust our asses off for the next six months, but the road is tilted heavily in our favor, and the rewards are well worth the effort. And consider this, if we can flip those Senate seats, that could have positive implications for the down line congressional seats as well.
Thanks as always for reading!