On Tuesday, voters in Nebraska and West Virginia will cast ballots in their state’s presidential primaries, but they’ll also be voting in downballot primaries as well. In Nebraska, the GOP will select its candidate to face Rep. Brad Ashford, who is arguably the most vulnerable House Democrat; however, national Democrats have been spending big to try and influence the contest. The three-way Democratic gubernatorial primary takes center stage over in the Mountain State, but Team Blue will also be picking its nominee for a long-shot House target.
Below is our look at the key races to watch. Polls close in West Virginia at 7:30 PM ET and at 9 PM ET in Nebraska. As always, we’ll be liveblogging all the results at Daily Kos Elections.
● NE-02 (R): Rep. Brad Ashford narrowly unseated unpopular Republican Rep. Lee Terry during the 2014 GOP wave, but he can’t take anything for granted in this 53-46 Romney seat, one of the reddest held by a House Democrat. Influential state Republicans and their national counterparts are backing retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Don Bacon in this Omaha-based district, and normally, he’d be the clear favorite against ex-state Sen. Chip Maxwell. Bacon hasn’t been a very strong fundraiser, but Maxwell has barely hauled in any cash at all. Maxwell also didn’t endear himself to Republican power players when he briefly threatened to run against Terry as an independent last cycle. But the very reason Republicans hate Maxwell is the exact reason Democrats love him.
Indeed, national Democrats have taken the rare step of running ads to try and help Maxwell beat Bacon. The DCCC launched a $437,000 ad campaign attacking Bacon as a creature of the GOP establishment, while calling Maxwell "a self-professed tea party conservative,” exactly the message that would appeal to Republican primary voters. Outside groups on the GOP side have not come to Bacon’s aid, and Bacon doesn’t have much money to push back. Still, he’s been airing some ads, so he is getting his name out at least somewhat. If Bacon prevails, Republicans may still work to unseat Ashford. But if they have to deal with an even weaker candidate like Maxwell, Team Red may simply decide it’s better to spend their cash elsewhere rather than try and prop him up, which is precisely what Democrats are hoping for.
● WV-Gov (D): Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is termed out, and three members of his party are competing to succeed him. The frontrunner (according to the polls) is coal billionaire Jim Justice, who owns The Greenbrier hotel and is the wealthiest man in the state. Justice has been doing some self-funding, though he hasn’t used his personal resources to flood the airwaves the same way other wealthy candidates have in other states. Justice faces ex-U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin, who hails from a prominent political family, as well as state Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler. Unsurprisingly, Justice has decisively outspent both his adversaries: As of April 29, Justice has spent $2 million, far more than Goodwin’s $302,000 or Kessler’s $200,000.
Only two polls have been released in recent weeks, and they both give Justice leads. Public Policy Polling has Justice beating Goodwin 37-23, while Repass Research has him up by a smaller 32-27. The race between Justice and Goodwin has gotten particularly nasty in the home stretch. A mystery group called Americans for Integrity in Government Officials also recently ran a spot against Justice using dash cam footage from an incident in late 2014 when Justice was pulled over for speeding and proceeded to berate the officer. Whoever emerges will face Republican state Senate President Bill Cole, who has no primary opposition. West Virginia has become increasingly Republican during the Obama administration, but what little polling there is shows Justice defeating Cole.
● WV-02 (D): Ordinarily, a Republican seeking re-election in a seat that Mitt Romney carried by 60-38 margin would be as safe as can be, but there’s nothing ordinary about Rep. Alex Mooney. Mooney had served in the Maryland legislature and unsuccessfully ran for Congress there in 2012 before moving to West Virginia the following year and launching yet another House bid. Thanks in part to his transparent carpetbagging, Mooney only defeated his Democratic foe 47-44 even as Republicans were dominating during the 2014 wave, and Team Blue is hoping his weakness will continue. National Democrats have consolidated behind Army lawyer Cory Simpson, but first he needs to beat ex-state Delegate Mark Hunt on Tuesday. Simpson outspent Hunt $98,000 to $25,000 during the first 20 days of April. Mooney will be tough to beat now that he has incumbency on his side, but this seat is worth keeping an eye on in the fall.