I have been writing a book on a three-fold recurring cycle in history, with each of the three phases having different characteristics. In recent centuries each have lasted about 32-33 years, with the most recent beginning in 2010 and running to 2042. In my work I look at how these phases have manifested in Europe and the U.S. over the last 500 years. I first completed a book on this in 2007, at about 650 pages, but was unable to interest a publisher. (I referenced the likely fall of the EU then, but only devoted a sentence to it.) My 2009 version was written in a more reader-friendly style, about 350 pages, but I was told I lacked the twitter followers for a publisher to be interested. I have since that time attempted numerous book proposals with different “hooks” to try to get the information out to the public, but continue to fail in this endeavor. Here is a page that was part of a version that I haven’t updated since 3/28/2012.
PREDICTION: The European Union will not survive to the end of this Spirit Era. Spirit Eras are times when people are drawn together to identify with a larger group, a larger cultural community. If Europeans visualize themselves as having an identity distinct from other regions of the world — one which must be nurtured and protected — then they might form stronger bonds and move toward becoming a single state. But many other aspects of these years to come pose roadblocks for maintaining even the present degree of unification. First, the economy will no longer be the front and center issue that it has been for the last three decades. The people who put together the EU for economic success will no longer be politically powerful in their home countries. Second, as people reach out to identify themselves with a larger group, it is far more likely that they will identify themselves with their own nation, than with greater Europe. The European alliance has only existed for a few years, while each of the nations of Europe draws on a history going back hundreds, if not thousands, of years. Spirit Eras don’t look forward, they look back. Back to a time when people who spoke like them, and thought like them, and felt like them were in their glory. A suspicious attitude toward non-Europeans isn’t likely to be so strong as to cancel out the suspicion that the French and English have built up against each other over the course of centuries. Third, the idea of allowing people of other nationalities to work inside of the boundaries of one’s country — taking jobs away from one’s own people — is likely to become intolerable. This will be especially true if Turkey is allowed into the EU, with racial and religious intolerance intensifying. But even the presence of eastern European workers who speak other languages and live in their own enclaves will provoke a high degree of violence and popular disapproval. There will be politicians who will base their campaigns on getting rid of these aliens — on withdrawing from the European Union — and too many of them will win office.