It appears that April’s significantly reduced growth in new jobs wasn’t a fluke. The lower-than-forecast growth of that month repeated itself in May. Only worse. And the previous April and March calculations were revised downward.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the economy grew by just 38,000 new jobs in May. It was the worst showing since September 2010. Of these 25,000 were in the private sector, 13,000 in government. The consensus of experts surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of the report was for 158,000 new jobs. May marks the 68th consecutive month of overall job growth, the 75th month of private-sector job growth.
In addition to the weak showing in May, the BLS revised the job numbers it had previously calculated for the past two months. For the third month in a row, those revisions were downward. For April, the revision was from 160,000 to 123,000 new jobs. For March, from 208,000 to to 186,000.
The official unemployment rate, which the bureau calculates from a different survey and labels U3, fell to 4.7 percent. But that seeming good news was entirely because of the number of people who left the workforce. The jobless rate isn’t the same for everyone: Adult men: 4.3 percent; Adult women: 4.2 percent ; Whites: 4.1 percent; Blacks: 8.2 percent; Asians: 4.1percent; Hispanics: 5.6 percent; American Indians: (not counted monthly); Teenagers: 16 percent; (Among teenagers of color, the unemployment rate is significantly higher.)
In addition to U3, the bureau also estimates both unemployment and underemployment in a category it calls U6. In this category are people with no job, part-time workers who want a full-time job but can't find one, and some of the nation’s "discouraged" workers. In May, U6 remained unchanged at 9.7 percent.
Wages grew by an annualized rate of 2.5 percent. Part-time jobs grew by 139,000 positions. Full-time jobs fell by 59,000.
The civilian workforce in May fell by by 458,000, after having risen by 362,000 in April. The employment-population ratio fell to 59.7 percent, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.6 percent.
Wages for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 5 cents an hour in May to $25.59. For private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, wages rose 3 cents to $21.49 an hour in May.
The BLS "confidence level" in its estimate runs at plus or minus 105,000 jobs. This means the "real" number of new jobs created in May was not 38,000 but ranged between a loss of 67,000 jobs and a gain of 143,000.
Each month, the bureau calculates the job situation for Americans aged 25-54. People in this category are the most likely of those in any age cohort to have a job or be looking for one. The employment-population ratio for the 25-54 age group reached its all-time high of 81.9 percent in April 2000. When the Great Recession begin in December 2007, the ratio had fallen to 79.7 percent. It fell to its nadir of 74.8 percent in November 2010. Since then, it had been rising gradually. In May it rose to 77.8 percent.
ADDITIONAL ASPECTS OF THE APRIL JOB REPORT:
Hours & Wages
• Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose 3 cents an hour to $21.49 in May.
• Average work week for all employees on non-farm payrolls fell to 34.4 hours in May.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls {{rose 5 cents an hour in May to $25.59.
• The manufacturing workweek in May rose to 40.8 hours.
• The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private non-farm payrolls in May was unchanged at 33.6 hours.
Job gains and losses in May for selected categories:
• Professional services: + 10,000
• Transportation & warehousing: - 500
• Leisure & hospitality: + 11,000
• Information: - 34,000 (The Verizon strike has idled about 35,000 workers)
• Health care & social assistance: + 46,000
• Retail trade: + 11,400
• Construction: - 15,000
• Manufacturing: - 10,000
• Mining and Logging: - 10,000
Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in April for the previous 10 years compared with this May’s gain of 38,000.
May 2006: + 23,000
May 2007: + 143,000
May 2008: - 185,000
May 2009: - 351,000
May 2010: + 522,000
May 2011: + 73,000
May 2012: + 115,000
May 2013: + 218,000
May 2014: + 213,000
May 2015: + 273,000