NY-13: On Thursday, Assemblyman Keith Wright conceded to state Sen. Adriano Espaillat in the Democratic primary to replace longtime Rep. Charlie Rangel. This seat, which includes Harlem and part of the Bronx, is one of the most Democratic districts in the country, and Espaillat will become the first Dominican-American member of Congress in January.
Harlem has been represented by an African-American since 1944, when the legendary and controversial Adam Clayton Powell Jr. was first elected, but redistricting and demographic changes have made this seat predominantly Latino over the ensuing decades. Now, 54 percent of the district is Latino, while only 25 percent is black; however, African-Americans tend to turn out in local Democratic primaries in much greater numbers. Race was always an issue in the lead up to Tuesday’s contest, and as Matthew Isbell demonstrates with a series of maps, it was a major factor in the election returns.
Isbell tells us that Espaillat won the heavily Hispanic Bronx and North Manhattan portions of the seat, though Wright, who is black, did take Spanish Harlem. Wright also did very well in Harlem, which has been a black Mecca for a century. However, three other black candidates took a combined 22 percent of the vote, which made all the difference in a contest Wright lost 37-34.
Ex-Assemblyman Clayton Powell IV, the son of the former congressman, only won 6 percent of the vote overall, but Isbell notes that he did well in Spanish Harlem, which he used to represent in the legislature. Espaillat actually did poorly in Spanish Harlem, which is predominately Hispanic, and it’s likely that if Powell wasn’t in the contest, many of his voters would have gone to Wright. Another African-American candidate, ex-DNC Political Director Clyde Williams, took 11 percent district-wide, and did well around Inwood and Southern Harlem; it’s also likely that he cost Wright some critical support.
Espaillat did face Assemblyman Guillermo Linares, a fellow Dominican and a bitter rival, and he threatened to eat into his base. However, Linares only took 6 percent of the vote overall, and he didn’t exceed 20 percent of the vote almost anywhere. Altogether, the four African-American candidates took a combined 56 percent of the vote, while Espaillat and Linares grabbed 42.
It’s likely that Espaillat will face a credible primary challenge in 2018, but nothing’s certain. While the contest got particularly nasty in the final weekend, things have calmed down since then. While Rangel expressed shock on election night at the idea of Harlem not having an African-American congressman, he appeared at a unity press conference with Espaillat and Wright after the latter conceded. There’s also no guarantee that there will be just one strong black opponent for Espaillat, either.
As a congressman, Espaillat also will have the chance to win over voters who were skeptical about him as a candidate. Texas Democratic Rep. Marc Veasey is one politician who became quickly entrenched after a racially divisive primary. In 2012, Veasey, who is black, defeated ex-state Rep. Domingo Garcia just 53-47 in a contest where race played a major role. Two years later, Veasey easily defeated a well-funded Hispanic primary foe, and he didn’t face a credible challenge in 2016.
Tennessee Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen is another good example for Espaillat. Cohen, a white politician representing a predominately black seat, won just 31 percent of the vote in his 2006 primary against a crowded field of African-American opponents. Two years later, Cohen took 79 percent against a foe who put race front-and-center, and he’s never taken less than 66 percent of the vote since then. While racial divisions played a major part in the last three Democratic primaries in NY-13, they may not be the be-all end-all in 2018.