The story about how Democrats win in 2016 rests heavily on the existence of the
“Obama coalition, but is it a safe assumption to assume that coalition still exists today?
We need to first understand the diverse interests of those constituents.
- The Working Class, those who economically survive on their own waged labor, and are hurt immensely from Neo-Liberalism.
- The Bureaucracy, Those who serve the present order to serve their interests
- The Identity Groups, Those who will serve the present order for preferential positioning within this order.
- The Trans-national capitalists, Those who actually benefit from Neo-Liberalism.
As you can see, we have a fundamental problem. No stable coalition can exist with both the first, and the last, interests in the same place. The Obama Coalition was an unstable coalition, created from a lot of hope caused by 8 years of the GOP, and a VERY charismatic presidential candidate. It was not his historical nature that was able to bring in those opposing interests, it was his charisma, his social magic per se….
Now the left is asking for real proof that they are really part of this coalition, but it cannot exist, no proof can be afforded. The trans-national capitalist class is extremely fickle, the only thing that gives extra legroom is their own concerns about Donald. In addition the identity groups have been engaged in classed attacks against the working class, and critical amounts of bad blood exist. This is not from the presidential campaign, Sen. Sanders could not have known just how angry everyone was, he wouldn’t have won anything if the structural existence of prior Obama coalition didn’t exist.
Is this fixable? Yes, I believe it is, but not with Post-Modern dishonesty or aggressive silencing. The latter we see as the official strategy to avoid actually creating a shared agenda. The Sanders voters are not going to come back to the DNC, large amounts are independents for this very reason I outlined. On top of it all Sen Sanders has no leverage, he cannot make proposals for bringing things together he could personally never deliver. The DNC needs to start getting material, and concrete about what a shared party looks like.
Otherwise, it is beyond possible that they lose the 2016 election, the data confirms the trends. Continuing to believe that our divide is rhetorical, or based on 6 months of campaigning is willing to throw this election for their own economic interests. I respect that decision, In fact I very much respect that the DNC feels it will win anyway, but I think the unserved section of the Obama coalition deserves it outlined more clearly. At the bare minimum, please just reply ‘confirmed’. So we can just be on our way respectfully.