I know Liepar usually does the BNR threads but curiosity got the better of me.
What’s going on in California fellow Berners? What have you heard/seen/done so far? What does the turnout look like? I haven’t heard much but I have seen tons of people with ‘I Voted’ stickers online (especially Twitter) which is encouraging. According to NBC News, Sanders outspent Clinton roughly 2-1 in California advertising ($1.9 million to $1 million) although I doubt that will make a significant difference in a state as large and expensive as the golden state.
I’ve been keeping up events as much as I can by watching the California Primary Twitter feed. My favorite one so far --->
Gave me a good laugh :)
Below are some other tweets I have seen on social media…
Speaking of voting, here are some predictions I came up with after messing around with the statistics for a few weeks using the secret ‘Toby’ model:
California: Clinton 49, Sanders 49
The Golden State is, as of this time, too close to call according to my projections. Full write up is coming soon.
New Jersey: Clinton 61, Sanders 39
There aren’t a lot of northern states that get better for Hillary Clinton than New Jersey. It’s a closed primary (she has won all but two of these) and demographics and the median ages in the state largely favor her and sometimes in a big way. Newark, for example, is over 40% black, highly urban, and Clinton will likely take the New Jersey black vote 75-25 (as she did in New York. To add to the favorable demographics, Sanders has largely foregone campaigning there (his last event was a month ago in Atlantic City), has spent nothing on advertising, and several polls have shown the former Secretary with a 20+ point lead. However, New Jersey’s voter ID law could disenfranchise many voters (as they did in Wisconsin), especially young and black voters. Whether or not this will hurt Sanders’ numbers more than Clinton’s or vice versa is not clear although it will likely depress turnout for both blocs. New Jersey also allows Independents to register as Democrats to vote at the polling places, a facet which may be Sanders’ saving grace in the state to avoid a very large loss in the state which could allow Clinton to preemptively clinch the nomination before polls close in California.
Montana: Clinton 29, Sanders 71
The Big Sky Country state is set to deliver a blowout win for Sanders. There are even more factors working in his favor here than there are in South Dakota. For a start, Montana is an open primary which, outside of the South, Sanders has generally done very well in. There’s a very good chance he will not only immensely benefit from the Independent vote, but some Republicans may cross over in significant numbers (as they did in West Virginia) to vote against Clinton. Other factors that will drive up Sanders’ margins are the demographics, which like those of the Dakotas, are very favorable for the Vermont Senator. Montana is 87% white, slight minority female, and has one of the lowest black populations in the nation at 0.6%. The median incomes in many counties (below $40,000) are right up Sanders’ street, and virtually every single county is highly rural, with only two counties having populations over 100,000 (and only one city of that size), which also plays to his strengths. Sanders also visited the state and held several rallies there, including one in Billings, which has likely not been forgotten by the residents there. If there is any factor that could significantly shrink his big margin in the state it is the high median age in many counties, often over 45 and sometimes hitting 50, which has gone for Clinton in most cases. However, as was seen in the Oregon primary, a high median age did not stop Sanders from racking up margins as high as 30 points in many rural counties (i.e. Wheeler County) and there is little to suggest it will do so here.
North Dakota: Clinton 15, Sanders 85
North Dakota is a open caucus, lily white, largely rural, and has a progressive streak (Former Sen. George McGovern was from North Dakota, as well as Sen. Byron Dorgan), all of which are factors immensely favorable to Sanders, who is an unabashed populist. Furthermore, Sanders has spent more time and energy on the state than Clinton, and phone-bankers on Berniepb.com have already made a not insignificant 5,000 calls to the state (more if you consider calls made through other channels), which should only add to his numbers. I expect him to take the state by an enormous margin, similar to that of Alaska (where Sanders won 82-18), if not even better. It is very possible that Clinton could have trouble with viability here.*
*North Dakota’s voter ID law could potentially drive down Sanders’ numbers as it tends to affect younger voters (his biggest supporters) since they are less likely to have one.
South Dakota: Clinton 34, Sanders 66
Good news for Sanders here, South Dakota is a semi closed primary. Sanders has generally done very well in semi closed primaries thanks to democratic leaning independents frequently breaking for him by huge margins (70-30 in Indiana, which propelled him to a 5 point win there). Of the six of them in this primary, he has won four with the two exceptions being Massachusetts and North Carolina, although he put up a respectable showing in both states nevertheless. However, there are many other factors in South Dakota that indicate an easy Sanders win here. The state is 83% white, the black and Latino populations are almost nonexistent (1.9%), it is actually minority female (49.7% female), rural, three of its five largest counties (including the largest) have a median age under 35, and all of them have high percentages of people with bachelor’s degrees. There is however, a somewhat significant first American (Native American) population in the state, at around 9%, but there is too little data to determine how they will vote. That said, their votes won’t be enough to significantly shift the margin in either candidate’s favor. Expect Sanders to win, and win big here.*
**Same as North Dakota
New Mexico: Clinton 51, Sanders 49
The most heavily Latino state in the nation has the potential to turn into another Kentucky between Sanders and the former Secretary. Full write up coming soon.
Here’s to a nice big win in California today!
#FeelTheBern