Overview
If May was a bad month for Hillary Clinton, June was a terrible one for Donald Trump. His polling numbers have fallen, and indeed he’s rarely broken 40% in this month’s national polls. Trump has shaken up his campaign, firing manager Cory Lewandowski, but has yet to build the robust organization he’ll need (he’s hired few staffers, done little fundraising, and has not started advertising in key states). If and when he starts to build a stronger campaign, his numbers may improve, although he has little room for growth unless he can improve his dismal favorability ratings. To make matters even worse, he’s earned bad press for his responses to major events like the Orlando shooting, the Brexit vote, and the Supreme Court decisions; and faces scrutiny (and potentially legal action) for his apparent failed promises to donate business proceeds to charity.
Meanwhile, Clinton’s support has risen a bit this month, and she leads him in the Huffington Post model by 7%. In some polls, her support reaches 50%, a level Trump has hardly seen in any red-state polling, let alone national polling. She has earned the enthusiastic support of Elizabeth Warren, who endorsed her on June 9 and campaigned alongside her on June 27, amid speculation that she could be Clinton’s running mate—and the tepid support of Bernie Sanders, who has yet to formally endorse (or end his presidential campaigned) but announced he’d be voting for her.
How has all of this affected by state-by-state projections? Not much, actually. Two states (and one district) shift slightly in Trump’s direction, while three others (and one district) move in Clinton’s direction. Clinton’s gains, though, are more significant, as we’ll see below.
Definitions
Safe: the favored party's candidate is extremely likely to win this state, even if the opponent wins in landslide nationally (99-100% chance the favored party will win this state in 2016)
Solid: the favored party's candidate is extremely likely to win this state, except in a wave election the other way (90-98% chance)
Likely: the favored party's candidate is likely to win this state (75-89% chance)
Lean: the favored party's candidate has the advantage, but this state could go either way (60-74% chance)
Edge: this is a tossup state, but I believe one party/candidate has a slight advantage (50-59% chance)
Current Projection
Hillary Clinton: 347 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump: 191 Electoral Votes
(270 Electoral Votes needed to win)
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton 51% (+/-4%)
Donald Trump 45% (+/-5%)
State-by-State Forecast Changes and Updates
Arizona changes to Lean Republican (from Likely Republican). This state tends to go Republican, but polls so far show that Arizona may be one of the most competitive states in the country.
Arkansas changes to Safe Republican (from Solid Republican), based on one poll showing Trump up by double-digits and near 50%. I was expecting that there might be a closer race here—and perhaps there will be—but for the time being, all signs point to a comfortable Trump win.
DC stays Safe Democrat. No change here, except that I’m now showing it on my map as a circle on the border between Maryland and Virginia.
Florida changes to Lean Democrat (from Edge Democrat). Clinton is polling well in Florida, and the trend lines look great. At the present time, Florida seems to be leaning her way.
Kansas remains Safe Republican, despite a shocking poll showing Clinton ahead by 7%. If any other polls show similar results, or even a smaller-than-expected Trump lead, then Kansas and other Plains states may shift out of the Safe Republican category next time.
Maine-02 changes to Likely Democrat (from Solid Democrat). There was a new poll in Maine that showed Clinton up by 7% statewide, but Trump leading in the second congressional district (Maine, along with Nebraska, are the two states that can split their electoral votes by district). I still expect Clinton to win this district, but I’ve updated my map to show that this district, as well as NE-02 (see below) are more competitive.
Michigan changes to Likely Democrat (from Solid Democrat). Polls here have mostly shown Clinton ahead by a clear margin, so this change is mainly just a recognition of the fact that the state will probably be a battleground.
Nebraska-02 changes to Lean Republican (from Solid Republican). No polling here, but polls in nearby Iowa and Kansas may be illustrative of what’s going on in Nebraska. As of today, Fivethirtyeight’s forecasts show Trump a very slight favorite to win this district, which is indicated on the map by a small circle in eastern Nebraska (like Maine, Nebraska splits its electoral votes by district).
North Carolina changes to Edge Democrat (from Edge Republican). This change comes in part because of polling (all June polls show Clinton up or tied in NC), and in part because of fundamentals (clear signs that Clinton will be targeting North Carolina heavily, including ad buys and campaign trips).
Pennsylvania remains Likely Democrat. Once again I contemplated shifting this to Lean status, since much of the polling has been tight. However, Clinton has been consistently ahead, with the most recent polls putting her up by anywhere from 4 to 14%. Furthermore, there are reports that Trump is not yet organized in the state (Clinton has a much better ground game, though she’s yet to make PA a major advertising target), I’m comfortable with leaving it in Likely status at this point.
Utah remains Solid Republican. It’s definitely looking closer than usual (more due to Trump’s weakness in the state than Clinton’s strength), but it would probably take a national landslide, or an unexpected turn of events (like Romney endorsing Clinton or declaring himself a candidate) for Clinton to have a real shot at winning.
Electoral Vote Scorecard
Safe Democratic states: 168 EVs — CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Solid Democratic states: 32 EVs — ME*, MN, NJ, NM
Likely Democratic states: 51 EVs — PA, ME-02, MI, NH, WI
Lean Democratic states: 63 EVs — CO, FL, IA, NV, VA
Edge Democratic states: 33 EVs — OH, NC
Edge Republican states: 0 EVs
Lean Republican states: 12 EVs — AZ, NE-02
Likely Republican states: 16 EVs — GA
Solid Republican states: 33 EVs — AK, IN, MO, MT, UT
Safe Republican states: 130 EVs — AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE*, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
*Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes by district
Looking Ahead…
With the campaign starting to pick up steam, I intend to publish updates more often, with the next one coming just after the conventions, followed by updates in late August, mid-September, and probably every two weeks or so after that.
It’s hard to say how things will play out in the next month, mainly because it’s unclear whether Trump’s campaign will continue to be chaotic and troubled, or whether the new leadership will be more effective. On the one hand, Clinton still would appear to have more upside potential than Trump (a good chunk of those who don’t like her now are left-of-center voters who used to think highly of her and could come around again); on the other side, Trump is doing remarkably well in the polls given his unpopularity and the impotence of his campaign...if his team starts executing better, it wouldn’t be shocking to see his polling numbers rise at least to Romney levels.
On the horizon are the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, July 18-21 and July 25-28, respectively, which are probably the best opportunities for each candidate to promote themselves to the electorate. Around the same time, the candidates are expected to reveal their running mates, another opportunity to effect the race (although the impact of this choice is probably smaller than many assume).
Overall, the number of undecided and third-party voters is very high...I expect to see these values fall over the next few months, but it’s very possible that by election day, many voters will be looking for an Option C (especially if the outcome doesn’t appear to be in doubt—a lesser-of-two-evils argument is more persuasive if the greater evil has a chance to win). Rather than the past four elections, it might be valuable to look at 1996 as a model, with Clinton coming in at approximately 50%, the Republican at just over 40%, and third-party candidates making up the difference.
Other Prognosticators
FiveThirtyEight has just released their forecasts, using three different models (polls-only, polls-plus, and if-the-election-were-held-today). Both the polls-only and polls-plus models are considered official forecasts, with polls-only currently the default. That method shows Clinton with a 79.2% chance of victory, and ahead in the electoral vote 347-191, just like my current prediction. With the polls-plus method, Clinton’s chances are 73.3%, and North Carolina shifts to Trump’s camp.
Joseph Kolacinski here at Daily Kos also has a data-based projection, which as of June 27 shows that states in which Clinton is leading (at least a 52% chance of victory) add up to 279 Electoral Votes, and Trump with 180. Six states are true toss-ups: PA, OH, NC, CO, NV, and AZ.
ABC, like some of the other news outlets, is a bit more cautious: they project Clinton with 262 EVs, Trump with 191, and tossup races in six states: FL, NC, OH, VA, IA, and NH.
NBC shows 255 EVs likely or leaning Democratic, 190 likely or leaning Republican, and tossups in PA, OH, NC, VA, CO, IA, NV, NH, ME-02, and NE-02.
The Fix (Washington Post) is more cautious still: they have Clinton leading in states worth 201 EVs, and Trump ahead in states worth 164. There are 13 tossup states—including Georgia and Michigan.
Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, as of today, projects Clinton with 330 EVs and Trump with 208. According to his analysis, for Trump to win, polls would have to shift by 3.86% in Trump’s direction. Clinton’s win percentage is 70-85%.
PredictWise shows the Democratic Party’s likelihood of winning the election at 75%, up from 69% a month ago. Clinton has a 70% or better chance at winning each of the states that vote for Obama in 2012, and a 51% chance in North Carolina.
The Blogging Caesar continues to show Clinton ahead, currently with 349 EVs to Trump’s 189 (he has Clinton leading in Arizona and Trump ahead in Colorado).
Rothenberg & Gonzales, as of today, has Clinton with 332, Trump with 191, and North Carolina as a toss-up.
NPR’s Domenico Montanaro projects that Clinton has 279 and Trump has 191 Electoral Votes. Five states (Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) are toss-ups.