Welcome to this diary that wants to be a call to wake up the fundraising for Democratic candidates that are being surpased in the financial side of their races.
In my opinion, based on the analysis of the fundamentals (profile of the candidates, political leaning of every constituency, fundraising data and public polls) of the senate, gubernatorial, house and statewide races, these are the most winnable races for the Democratic Party where the Republicans have fundrasing advantage for the total raised in the cycle.
If you can help them to avoid bad consequences the worst part of the electoral system in the United States, do it. All these races are winnable, and in most of them the Democratic Party would be favored. A fundraising wake up for these race would help to avoid many problems related to fundrasing disadvantage, and can help to avoid some aditional spending of the DSCC, DGA, DCCC and other organizations.
NC-Superintendent of Public Instruction (R+3 Democratic Incumbent): June Atkinson (D)
June Atkinson did strongly fundraising the last quarter, but she has still some earlier fundraising disaddvantage to reverse. I think she would be favored for the reelection.
FL-26 (D+4 from R+1 in 2014 Republican Incumbent): Joe Garcia (D), Anette Taddeo Goldstein (D)
J Garcia lost this district in the wave of 2014, and now two strong candidates are running in the Democratic primary, both with fumdraising disadvantage vs Carlos Curbelo (R). The new court map of Florida changed the district from R+1 in 2014 to D+4 in 2016 which is a significant improvement. Despite some financial disadvantage the Democratic candidate seems favored to regain this seat. (Unfortunately the neighbor FL-27 D+2 from R+2 in 2014 is going almost uncontested).
PA-Sen (D+1 Republican Incumbent): Katie McGinty (D)
It has been a difficult senate primary in Pennsylvania, but now it is time for the Democratic Party to look at the general election and to support strongly the Democratic nominee. In the last quarter she improved her fundraising numbers and reached the level of the strongest Democratic candidates of this cycle.
FL-13 (D+4 from R+1 in 2014 Republican Incumbent): Charlie Crist (D)
C Crist has been running for this seat, since the map change, which gives also, like for FL-26, a significant improvement for the prospect of a Democratic candidate. D Jolly (R), the current incumbent has been running for the US Senate until recently, but returned to his district with the return of M Rubio to the Senate race.
IL-10 (D+8 Republican Incumbent): Brad Schneider (D)
B Schneider was the incumbent of this seat between 2012 and 2014, and lost to R Dold who has been the incumbent between 2010 and 2012, and since 2014. This was the most Democratic seat in Republican hands after the 2014 elections. Despite to be a D+8 district, it has not been easy for the Democratic Party, and would be good to reduce the financial disadvantage that is small in relative terms.
NY-19 (D+1 Open by R): Zephyr Teachout (D)
This race is still in this list because of the strong fundraising of A Heaney (R) defeated in their primary. Z Teachout leads financially to the Republican winner of the primary J Faso (R), and can lead the total fundraising for this race after the next report. Despite it, this seat has not been easy, and financial help is welcomed.
VT-Governor (D+16 Open by D): Sue Minter (D)
This seems to be a competitive race. The Republicans have here two candidates different with their own strengths, and I’m not sure of who can win the primary. Only an early call to wake up the fundraising of the Democratic candidates in the race can help to assure a good result.
MO-Lieutenant Governor (R+5 Open by R): Russ Carnahan (D)
Despite to have financial disadvantage, the former congressman R Carnahan can take some advantage of his name recognition and the name recognition of his family thanks to have lower profile candidates in the Republican side.
NC-Treasurer (R+3 Open by D): Dan Blue (D)
Like in the case of the Superintendent, D Blue had good fundraising numbers, winning the last quarter, but still he has some previous disadvantage that he needs to reverse. In this case D Blue has not the advantage of the incumbency and has lower name recognition, but still this race can be also very competitive because the Republicans in the race suffered and will suffer the same situation.
WV-Secretary of State (R+13 Democratic Incumbent): Natalie Tennant (D)
The nature of West Virginia, the recent changes in the state, and to have fundrasing disadvantage makes N Tennant one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents this cycle. He challenger is not a high profile politician but is stronger financially. This race seems to be competitive, and would be good for the incumbent to improve her fundraising record.
WV-Commissioner of Agriculture (R+13 Democratic Incumbent): Water Helmick (D)
W Helmick is surely the most endangered Democratic incumbent of this cycle, and with N Tennant the alone that I have under Lean D rating. In this case both with Toss-Up rating. W Helmick is facing a rematch that will be difficult for sure, and where to remain back fundraising would make the things more difficult still.
ME-02 (D+2 Republican Incumbent): Emily Cain (D)
B Poliquin was one of the Republicans who won with lowest percentage of vote in 2014, and also was in one of the most Democratic seats that the Republicans won. An strong challenge was evident, and he prepared his fundraising numbers since the begin. This race can be competitive until the end.
NY-24 (D+5 Republican Incumbent): Colleen Deacon (D)
This can be another very competitive race until the last day. The Republican J Katko will not be difficult to beat but at same time this is one of the most favourable districts where the Democratic Party can launch an strong challenge.
CO-06 (D+1 Republican Incumbent): Morgan Carroll (D)
The Democratic Party has been trying to win this district since the begin of the decade, but M Coffman has been able to keep it with narrow victories in some case. This cycle, this is again one of the most competitive seats.