This is part of an ongoing series following what’s going on in the NYS Senate. The first part of this series can be found
here. From here on out, I’ll only write about races that have changed since the last diary. For districts that don’t appear, I’ve either seen no movement in the race, or there’s only a nominal challenger to the incumbent. My race ratings lean conservative, in part because petitioning isn’t over (petitions for the September primary were due at the end of June), and campaigns haven’t really begun in earnest yet.
SD 3: Senator Tom Croci has two potential challengers in attorney and democratic activist
Joseph Fritz and law student John DeVito. Fritz has run for every local office imaginable over the years, and DeVito appears to be a first time candidate. The Suffolk Democratic Committee isn't taking sides in the primary. These guys are probably at the "some dude" level of candidate, and I don't expect this to be aggressively contested.
Safe R.
SD 5: Senator Carl Marcellino
has a challenger in Suffolk County Water Authority Chairman James Gaughran. Gaughran is also a former county legislator and town councilman, so he's won elections before. This district has a 4,000 democratic enrollment advantage. Gaughran has gained the endorsement of both the Nassau and Suffolk Democratic Committees and is planning a robust campaign. This is a democratic district at the presidential level with a long term incumbent who's fared well in presidential years. I'll conservatively place this at
Lean R, but this is a race to watch.
SD 6: Senator Kemp Hannon had some very close calls in the last few years. Attorney Ryan Cronin is challenging Hannon again after losing to Hannon by 4,000 votes in 2012. Cronin recently got a good endorsement from a
PAC opposing candidates who do not support the Child Victims Act, which would lengthen the statute of limitations for those who were sexually abused as children. While Hannon (a lawyer) seems to be taking a lawyerly view against lengthening the statue of limitations, lawyerly views aren't exactly shared by voters. This is something that could catch fire as a wedge issue in this type of race, and democrats likely need this seat to take the senate back. Given it's close lean in presidential years, and the unknown drag Trump will have on the ticket (Trump
crushed in Nassau and Suffolk in the primary, for whatever it's worth), I'm going to say
Tilt R, but this could easily be a
tossup if Cronin catches fire.
SD 7: Nassau Republicans nominated
Flower Hill Mayor and fourth-degree blackbelt (honestly, that’s pretty cool) Elaine Philips to run for the vacant 7th SD; current Senator Jack Martins is running for Steve Israeli’s house seat. She’s running against Adam Haber, a local businessman and school board member who ran and lost races for this seat and for Nassau County Executive. Flower Hill is a small village with a population fewer than 5,000 so while Mayor Philips has won elections before, they’ve been for a small population of people. That said, Haber has run several unsuccessful attempts at higher office, but can self-fund. This seat is crucial to taking back the senate (Obama won this seat with 53% in 2012). This will be rigorously contested and I expect it to be very expensive, and very nasty.
Tossup.
SD 8: Senator Todd Kaminsky won this seat in April in a special election by 886 votes.
He must defend it against his former opponent, Chris McGrath, again in November. This seat is within the NYC media market, and the special election itself saw millions in spending. This is going to be nasty, contentious, and will have a lot of resources poured into it. I'll pit this at
Lean D due to Kaminsky's prior elected experience, current incumbency, and lack of current public polling but this is going to be a tough race.
SD 16: S.J. Jung is taking another shot at challenging Toby Stavisky in the 16th district. This district has a very highly concentrated Asian population (with large enclaves of Asian voters in Elmhurst and Flushing, and growing within Woodside and Forest Hills), so Stavisky, whose base is the older Jewish community within Forest Hills and Rego Park, may have quite a challenge on her hands.
Stavisky beat Jung with 58% of the vote in 2014, but fewer than 10,000 votes were cast in that election. The primary isn't until September, so it's unclear how engaged people will be (Hint: people usually aren't very engaged), but this is a primary to watch. There's no danger of democrats losing this seat come November though.
Safe D; likely safe for the incumbent.
SD 25: Senator Valemente Montgomery has been in office for 32 years. She faces a primary from Michael Cox, who is a a former teacher, congressional staffer, and Obama Administration official. Montgomery seems to be well-liked in her district, and seemingly gets along with the other local electeds. I'm not sure if Cox is trying to build name recognition for a future run around here or wants to give her a scare, but he seems unlikely to defeat Montgomery. Either way, this district will remain in democratic hands, as winning the democratic primary is tantamount to winning the election. Safe D; Likely safe for the incumbent.
SD 31: Senator Adriano Espaillat is the winner of
NY-13's (Rangel) democratic primary. This opens this seat up as a challenge between former
Councilman Robert Jackson, and former Chief of Staff to Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, Bloomberg staffer, charter school advocate, and founder of SKDKnickerbocker Micah Lasher. Lasher has the endorsement of
many local elected officials, including Schneiderman who used to hold this seat. Lasher is the favorite as he has much of the institutional support. Either way, this race is
Safe D.
SD 33: Councilman, and noted anti-gay activist, Fernando Cabrera is once against looking to challenge Gustavo Rivera for this Bronx-based seat. Cabrera lost in 2014 to
Rivera and blamed "the liberal media" for his loss. Turns out insulting a large portion of the voting population is no way to run a campaign. County Chairman Marcos Crespo doesn't sound super thrilled about a challenge to Rivera--this is probably bolstered by Rivera's chief of staff dropping her bid to challenge Jamaal Bailey in the 36th.
Safe D; likely incumbent.
SD 36:
SEIU recently endorsed candidate Jamaal Bailey. Bailey has ties to Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie. Bailey also has the endorsement of
RWDSU, so he seems to have much of the organized labor and party apparatus in the district. Gustavo Rivera chief of staff Katrina Asante was running for this seat, but
dropped out. There are other candidates in the race, but they don’t have the star power that Bailey does behind them.
Safe D.
SD 39: The 39th SD, held by Senator Bill Larkin since 1990, was
recently polled. Even though Larkin's likely strongest challenger, Assemblyman James Skoufis,
took a pass on this race, Larkin appears to be running scared against Orange County Legislator Chris Eachus, who ran against Larkin in 2012 and
lost 52%-48%. Larkin has been in politics since the Ford Administration (Yes, as in Gerald Ford), and was consistently a supporter of now-convicted Senator Dean Skelos. If the Democrats hope to take the Senate, this district is crucial. Since Larkin is in danger, but not facing his toughest opponent, I'm going to place this race at
Lean R until further polling emerges.
SD 43: Senator Kathy Marchione really stepped in it. Hoosick Falls, a small community north of Albany, recently discovered that its water is very contaminated; even worse, the NYS Health Department seems to have
failed to do anything and action was only taken once the EPA stepped in. While this is not Marchione's fault, she and the majority have refused to hold hearings on the issue, instead opting for a task force (which doesn't have the same type of legal authority). Former minor league umpire Shaun Francis is running against Marchione. This is a republican district (Former Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno represented an earlier iteration) and Francis isn't exactly a top tier candidate; additionally, while Hoosick Falls' predicament is egregious, it's not a huge population center of the district the way Saratoga Springs is. It's worth keeping an eye on, but this is probably
Safe R.
SD 46: Senator George Amadore has a challenger in Palatine Town Supervisor and labor activist
Sara Niccoli. Amadore lost this district in 2012, only to win it in 2014. With high democratic turnout, and a very contested congressional race (with Zephyr Teachout likely being the democratic candidate in the lower portion of the district), this could turn into a real race, as Niccoli and Teachout are very ideologically similar. If the Ulster portion of the district shows up for Niccoli, and many of the state workers who live in the suburbs west and south of Albany, Amadore can have a real problem. This race is probably
Likely R at this point, but thing could easily turn it towards a tossup if certain circumstances fall into place.
SD 49: Senator Hugh Farely, the longest-serving current NYS Senator, is retiring
due to his wife's health issues. Farely was virtually unbeatable in this district. Now that it's open, it's still very likely to vote for a republican. Former New York State Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco (last seen on the national scene surprisingly losing a congressional race to Scott Murphy) is running for this seat and
quickly consolidated local support. Deputy Schenectady County Clerk Chad Putnam is running for the democrats. This seat is
Likely R, but since it's a district without an incumbent, it's not quite safe; it's still very republican at the local level, so baring something crazy, it's not likely to flip parties.
SD 54: Four republicans are circulating petitions to run for the seat being vacated by Senator Mike Nozollio. Canandaigua Supervisor Pam Helming has official party backing in this Seneca County-based district. She faces Lyons Supervisor Brian Manktelow, Bobby Massarini, and Floyd Rayburn, who are both local businessmen. Helming also has the endorsement of the conservative party. I'm not aware of any democrats coming forward for this seat that Obama won 49%-48%, but this is locally very republican even if at the presidential level, there's not much in common with national republicans. For now I'm leaving it at
Safe R until a democratic candidate emerges.
SD 60: This . . . is sort of a disaster for democrats. Senator Panepinto is retiring due to scandals including
sexual harassment and hosting underaged college parties. Panepinto won this race narrowly by winning a plurality split between three candidates. Unfortunately for democrats, Assemblyman Sean Ryan, likely the strongest contender for this district, has declined to run. Republicans recruited Erie County Clerk Chris Jacobs, who was the republican's desired candidate. This district is very blue in presidential years, so our likely candidate, Amber Small, may be able to ride a blue tidal wave if Trump drags down the ticket. It's worth noting that Western NY's own Trump, Carl Paladino (last seen getting demolished by Andrew Cuomo and winning a seat on the Buffalo School Board), will likely be very active in this race; if Paladino endorses a more conservative option than Jacobs, and funds them well, all bets are off. This district is probably a
tossup at this point purely due to partisan lean, but it's certainly one to keep an eye on given the weird circumstances around it.
It's worth noting that in SDs 40 and 41, there are contested races, but I've seen very little news on them. I expect things to pick up once petitioning ends and primaries are decided. For not I'm leaving these at Likely R and Lean R respectively. I'll shift the 41st from my previous write up due to the Presidential lean of the district (53% Obama in 2012), and the benefit of a contested house race (Teachout vs. Faso) for potential downballot effects. I leave these out of the write up because these are guesses and not backed up by any data or developments specific to these races.