There is this thing called the convention bump. I think we are past the bump. Every morning I get up and check the forecast at Nate Silver’s Fiverthirtyeight.com. Every night before I go to bed I check it again. It’s like taking a temperature. I did the same when Obama ran. No matter what the news story of the day, I check the temperature.
This morning it shows an 87.8% chance that we have a Madam President. The odds just keep getting better. I can’t wait for it to break the psychological barrier of 90%. Maybe it is my own psychological barrier, because it means very little in real terms. And really, the Polls plus forecast at 77.6% is more conservative and probably more meaningful. Still, I am on Nate Watch looking for the 90%. Is anybody else on Nate watch?
FiveThrityEight.com