Overview
July was a wild month, with poll numbers generally falling for Hillary Clinton and rising for Donald Trump through the end of the Republican convention (July 21) and then rebounding in the opposite direction. At the present time, Hillary Clinton maintains comfortable leads over Donald Trump nationwide and in nearly every battleground state.
On the whole, the map looks much stronger for Hillary Clinton than last month. While no red states flip to blue this time, ten red states are getting more competitive (compared to just two blue states). Meanwhile, four blue states are getting less competitive, including critical ones like Ohio and Virginia.
Definitions
Safe: the favored party's candidate is extremely likely to win this state, even if the opponent wins in landslide nationally (99-100% chance the favored party will win this state in 2016)
Solid: the favored party's candidate is extremely likely to win this state, except in a wave election the other way (90-98% chance)
Likely: the favored party's candidate is likely to win this state (75-89% chance)
Lean: the favored party's candidate has the advantage, but this state could go either way (60-74% chance)
Edge: this is a tossup state, but I believe one party/candidate has a slight advantage (50-59% chance)
Current Projection
Hillary Clinton: 347 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump: 191 Electoral Votes
(270 Electoral Votes needed to win)
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton 51% (+/-3%)
Donald Trump 44% (+/-5%)
State-by-State Forecast Changes and Updates
Arkansas, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska-01, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Texas change to Solid Republican (from Safe Republican). These are states that Trump will probably win, even if things get a little worse for him between now and Election Day, but he might lose if his support collapses in a serious way.
Indiana and Missouri change to Likely Republican (from Solid Republican). Trump is still favored in these states, but recent polling shows that both are looking very competitive.
Georgia changes to Lean Republican (from Likely Republican). Four polls so far this month. Clinton led in two and Trump led in two. Trump is probably still a slight favorite here, but if GOP turnout is down (or if a chunk of Republicans reject Trump) and Democratic turnout is strong, Hillary can definitely pull off the win.
Iowa changes to Edge Democrat (from Lean Democrat). Iowa is just one of two states that are moving in Trump’s direction this month. The last poll from Iowa that showed a significant lead for Clinton was back in June; since then, polls have shown a very close race.
Ohio changes to Lean Democrat (from Edge Democrat). Clinton has held narrow but rather consistent leads over Trump in Ohio polling.
Colorado and Virginia change to Likely Democrat (from Lean Democrat). Most recent polling in these states have shown Clinton ahead by double digits. These are both states where Trump’s weakness among college-educated white voters could doom his chances.
Oregon changes to Solid Democrat (from Safe Democrat). Clinton remains strongly favored in Oregon, and she should be ahead comfortably, but this is one state where she’s slightly vulnerable due to the large number of undecided and third-party voters. If they break heavily for Trump, we could have a close race. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Trump campaign target Oregon, if states like Pennsylvania and Virginia seem out of reach.
New Jersey changes to Safe Democrat (from Solid Democrat). This state has never really been close, although some polls made it look almost close.
Electoral Vote Scorecard
Safe Democratic states: 175 EVs — CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA
Solid Democratic states: 25 EVs — ME*, ME-01, MN, NM, OR
Likely Democratic states: 73 EVs — CO, PA, ME-02, MI, NH, VA, WI
Lean Democratic states: 53 EVs — FL, NV, OH
Edge Democratic states: 21 EVs — IA, NC
Edge Republican states: 0 EVs
Lean Republican states: 28 EVs — AZ, GA, NE-02
Likely Republican states: 21 EVs — IN, MO
Solid Republican states: 84 EVs — AK, AR, KS, MS, MT, NE-01, ND, SC, SD, TX, UT
Safe Republican states: 58 EVs — AL, ID, KY, LA, NE*, NE-03, OK, TN, WV, WY
*Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes by district
The most important thing to note here is that the Safe, Solid and Likely Democratic states add up to 273 Electoral Votes. That means that Hillary could lose all seven highly competitive states (ten, if you include Indiana, Missouri, and South Carolina, where recent polls have shown Clinton within striking distance), and still win the election. Of course, if Hillary wins all of these competitive states, she would not only win the election in a landslide, but the Democrats would almost certainly re-capture the Senate as well, since many of these states have competitive Senate races.
Looking Ahead…
Over the next week or so, it should become clear whether Hillary can maintain her current advantage, or whether her lead fades a bit as the her convention bounce dissipates. So far, it appears that there has been very little tightening.
From that point, there doesn’t seem to be much that can significantly change the trajectory of the race until the presidential debates, the first of which is scheduled for September 26. The Clinton campaign probably has more reason to fear external events (like a new Wikileaks release, or a terrorist attack) than any actions by the inept Trump campaign.