In a summary story titled Clinton Consolidates Lead Over Trump After Rough Week for Republicans, we learn that in an Aug 4-5 poll with over 2,000 respondents Morning Consult finds Clinton ahead 46-37 in a head to head comparison. This compares with 43-40 on July 29-30, and trailing 40-44 in a poll taken July 22-24. That represents a further consolidation of advantage for Clinton in the week since the Democratic convention ended.
Some of this is from change among independents in last week, where Clinton has increased from 32 to 34% while Trump has dropped from 48 to 34%. Thus they are now splitting independents, meaning Trump’s margin in that group drop by 6 percentage points in one week.
Support among military families is unchanged in this poll, with that group favoring Trump 48-36.
Going to a four-way race, Clinton’s lead is still 8
Clinton 41
Trump 33
Johnson 9
Stein 5
This is first time Morning Consult has included Stein. Johnson is down 2 points.
Full top lines and cross-tabs apparently require a log-in, which I do not have.
This poll has a margin of error of +/- 2%.
Its overall trend is the same as what we have seen in other recent polls.
It will be interesting to see the impact of including this and the Post-ABC polls in aggregators like Upshot, 538, RealClearPolitics, and Pollster.
UPDATE 9:09 There is one additional new poll out, from LA Times/ USC which has Clinton up 45-44.
Real Clear Politics, which includes that, now has its margin up from 6.9 to 7.0 for Clinton.
Pollster.Com, which does not include the LA Times poll but does have the other 2, now has its national margin at Clinton +8.
FiveThirtyEight has not yet updated. Upshot only uses state polls.
UPDATED 9:22 Rasmussen also out with a new poll. Brief summary — they have Clinton up 4, compared to even two weeks ago. However, two weeks ago was even head to head, this is now +4 in a 4-way including Johnson & Stein, so not sure what to make of anything beyond the clear movement towards Clinton.