What would constitute a debate win for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? The growing conventional wisdom is that Clinton needs Trump to melt down, and that a win for Trump just means behaving like an adult with a modicum of impulse control. Greg Sargent cautions against the view that Clinton can only win if Trump is a total disaster, though:
Indeed, allow me to suggest one possible way all this might go. Serious, Sedate Trump appears on Monday night, and manages to remain present throughout. Commentators gush about how he “defied expectations.” Meanwhile, Clinton gets a message out to the voters that she is nonetheless far more prepared for the presidency than Trump is, while simultaneously reminding them herself in some detail about the Unhinged Trump they already know so well. Commentators don’t register that happening, or at least give it short shrift amid their zeal to declare that Trump cleared the bar that they themselves set at floor-level for him. But the voters do register it.
That Trump is blowing off debate prep and has notorious trouble not being an abusive, incoherent bully is well known. But expectations management is also a thing:
Trump may well behave as the raving bully he is, and that might be good for perceptions of who won the debate. But he has other ways to lose this, if the media will let him. He not only may be caught lying, it’s almost a certainty he will—the question is whether it will draw attention. He not only may be caught in ignorance of key policy points, it’s almost a certainty he will—but will it be taken as a sign that he’s too lazy and self-involved to learn the things a president needs to know, or as irrelevant?
Let’s set the bar: it’s not enough for Trump to behave in a way that would be minimally acceptable at a dinner party. He should have to show he can do the job of president before he’s given credit for anything approaching a debate win.
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