The contest for New York’s 19th Congressional District, an open Hudson Valley seat has been an unusual race to handicap. On the one hand, Barack Obama carried this district 52-46, and Democrat Zephyr Teachout has been one of the best House fundraisers in the country, thanks in part to a big endorsement from Bernie Sanders. However, this area is still friendly to Republicans downballot, and Teachout, a law professor who challenged Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary two years ago, has one big liability: She only recently moved to the district full time, and Republican John Faso and his allies haven’t hesitated to portray her as a carpetbagger from New York City. As a result, we’ve given Faso, a former state Assembly minority leader, the edge here.
However, both parties are acting like this race is very winnable. Republican outside groups have reserved $1.3 million here to help Faso offset Teachout’s huge financial edge, an edge that’s allowed the DCCC to book only $186,000 in TV time so far. But more than that, Faso released a poll a few weeks ago giving him a 46-41 lead, while Democrats recently dropped their own survey showing Teachout up 47-42. If the truth lies somewhere in between, then the truth is as evenly divided as it gets.
Teachout’s weak ties to the area still concern us, but she has more than enough resources to get her own message out casting Faso as a stereotypical politician who puts Wall Street above the middle class. Given the polling, it’s tough to call either candidate a favorite, so we’re moving this race from Lean Republican to Tossup.