On behalf of the Missouri Times, the GOP pollster Remington Research takes another look at the gubernatorial race, and they give Democrat Chris Koster some very good news. Remington has Koster leading Republican Eric Greitens by a massive 51-36 margin, even as Donald Trump leads 49-39. (The Senate race was not tested this time.)
A week before, Remington also polled the Show Me State for the Missouri Times and they gave Koster a 47-38 lead. It’s unclear what, if anything, caused such a large swing in such a short amount of time. (Half of this most recent Remington poll was conducted before the presidential debate and half was done the day after, so that probably wasn’t it.) At the beginning of September, Remington surveyed Missouri for a different publication, the political newsletter Missouri Scout, and they had Koster up just 46-42.
Aside from some earlier Gravis Marketing surveys the Missouri Times commissioned (here and here) that also gave Koster the lead, we haven’t seen any other public polls in September. However, Greitens himself released a poll on Wednesday that also shows him trailing. The Tarrance Group’s survey gives Koster a 45-42 lead, while Trump takes Missouri 46-38. Greitens is certainly not in a good position when he has to drop polls that show him down “just” 3 points to reassure donors that he’s a worthy investment. Maybe Greitens should have instead held that survey and just insisted that if the awful pollster Gravis shows him losing, he’s probably actually winning big.
Missouri is a red state, but some powerful conservative groups have sided with Koster over Greitens. In early August, Koster became the first Democratic statewide candidate to ever earn the Missouri Farm Bureau’s endorsement. The NRA even chose the attorney general over Greitens, a retired Navy seal who ran several primary commercials that featured him firing guns. Koster has not at all been shy about running ads in rural Missouri informing voters that he has these two organizations on his side.
P.S.: One of the most frustrating things about Missouri politics is that the state has no campaign finance donation limits, but that may be about to change. The new Remington poll gives Amendment 2, which would limit contributions to state candidates to $2,600, a 64-24 lead.