Daily Kos Elections' project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for every state legislative seat in the nation arrives in Colorado, where Democrats hold the state House and the governorship, but where the GOP has a one-seat edge in the Senate. You can find our master list of states here, which we'll be updating as we add new states; you can also find all our data from 2016 and past cycles here.
Hillary Clinton carried Colorado 48-43, a similar margin as Obama’s 51-46 2012 win. While Clinton’s victory helped Democrats expand their edge in the state House from a thin 34-31 to a stronger 37-28, the GOP’s 18-17 Senate majority remained stubbornly intact. Clinton carried 21 of the 35 Senate seats, flipping one Romney districts while carrying all the Obama constituencies. However, only half the chamber was up in 2016, and two Republicans who hold Clinton seats won’t be up until 2018. Colorado’s legislative districts were drawn up by a commission, and the independent member broke the tie and selected the maps drawn by the Democratic members; the maps were later upheld by the state Supreme Court.
Both parties have been fighting over the Colorado Senate for years. In 2012, Team Blue won a 20-15 majority there, and after the Sandy Hook school shooting, the Democratic-led state government passed several gun safety laws. The NRA financed a successful recall campaigns against two Democratic legislators, whittling the Democrat’s Senate edge to one seat. Republicans soon began a recall campaign against a third Democratic senator, Evie Hudak. Hudak resigned from her suburban Denver seat in late 2013, which averted the recall campaign, and local Democrats picked Arvada City Councilwoman Rachel Zenzinger to fill her seat. Zenzinger needed to face the voters in 2014 for the final two years of Hudak’s term, but she lost 48-47 to Republican Laura Woods. That fall, Democrats won back the two Senate seats they lost in the recall campaigns, but they lost two other districts, giving the GOP the one-seat edge they enjoy today.
In 2016, Zenzinger challenged Woods to win a full four-year term. SD-19 swung slightly to the right, going from 52-45 Obama to 48-43 Clinton, but Zenzinger won their rematch 48-46. However, Democrats lost SD-25, which is also located in the Denver suburbs. Clinton still won the seat, but her 47-45 margin was a lot more modest than Obama’s 55-42, and Republican Kevin Priola won 52-48. Appointed GOP state Sen. Jack Tate also successfully won a full term 53-47 even as his SD-27, which is also located in suburban Denver, swung all the way from 51-47 Romney to 49-42 Clinton.
The good news for Democrats is they have two good targets in 2018. In 2014, Republican Beth Martinez Humenik won SD-24, which is located in suburban Denver (sensing a pattern?) 51-49; Clinton’s 48-43 win was smaller than Obama’s 53-44 victory, but the incumbent is far from safe. Republican state Sen. Tim Neville in turn unseated a Democratic incumbent 51-49 in SD-16, a Denver-area seat that went from 50-47 Obama to 50-41 Clinton. If Democrats can flip either seat while holding their own elsewhere, they’ll finally win back the Senate.
However, while there are no Democrats in Trump seats, that doesn’t mean Team Blue only needs to focus on offense next year. In 2014, Democrat Leroy Garcia won SD-03, a Pueblo County seat that the GOP had picked up in the previous year’s recall campaigns, by a 55-45 margin. However, while Clinton still carried this seat (which is not located in suburban Denver), her 48-43 margin was much smaller than Obama’s 58-39. Democrats will also want to keep an eye on SD-05, a Western Slope seat that Clinton won 49-43.
We’ll turn to the House, which is up every two years. Clinton carried 40 of the 65 seats, trading one Obama seat for four Romney districts. The 2012 presidential results actually do a better job explaining which party holds each House district than 2016, since every Democrat represents an Obama seat and every Republican holds a Romney district.
Democrats managed to narrowly hold their majority during the 2014 GOP wave. However, while Democrats drew the legislative map, they may not have a built-in edge. One way to illustrate this is to sort each seat in each chamber by Trump's margin of victory over Clinton and see how the seat in the middle—known as the median seat—voted. Clinton carried the median House seat 49-43, very similar to her 48-43 win statewide; in the Senate, Clinton took the median seat 48-43 as well. Still, it’s also worth noting that in 2014, while Democratic Sen. Mark Udall lost statewide 48-46 to Republican Cory Gardner, he actually carried a narrow majority of the Senate and 35 of the 65 House seats, so Team Blue may have a little more room for error.
Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper is termed-out next year, and both parties will fight hard to win. The state’s are very high here: It’s quite possible that Democrats will hold the governorship and the House, and net the one Senate seat they’d need to have full control of the government. It’s also possible the GOP will hold their ground in the Senate and take the governorship and House, and be the ones in the driver’s seat. And of course, we could have another split decision.