Aside from this introduction this post will be mainly tables and images. I will provide some analysis, but will write a more analytical post in the future regarding the 2016 vote.
First the results in the state house districts, using just the vote for Democratic and Republican candidates in all partisan statewide races. The first chart will indicate the district number, the party that held the district at the time of the election (only one legislative district flipped in the whole state, the 3rd senate district in Ashland and Medford), and the vote in those districts in the presidential, senate, gubernatorial, Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Attorney General elections. Later I will address the votes for the US House and Oregon legislature, and compare the results to the elections in previous years.
District |
Held By |
Pres |
Sen |
Gov |
SOS |
Treas |
ag |
Election Results by Oregon House District
1 |
R |
32-68% |
44-56% |
36-64% |
32-68% |
34-66% |
38-62% |
2 |
R |
30-70% |
43-57% |
34-66% |
29-71% |
32-68% |
37-63% |
3 |
R |
35-65% |
48-52% |
40-60% |
32-68% |
33-67% |
39-61% |
4 |
R |
29-71% |
44-56% |
33-67% |
25-75% |
28-72% |
34-66% |
5 |
D |
64-36% |
69-31% |
64-36% |
57-43% |
59-41% |
64-36% |
6 |
R |
43-57% |
55-45% |
45-55% |
36-64% |
39-61% |
45-55% |
7 |
R |
35-65% |
47-53% |
38-62% |
34-66% |
36-64% |
41-59% |
8 |
D |
71-29% |
74-26% |
69-31% |
64-36% |
65-35% |
71-29% |
9 |
D |
43-57% |
54-46% |
46-54% |
42-58% |
45-55% |
49-51% |
10 |
D |
51-49% |
62-38% |
52-48% |
48-52% |
51-49% |
56-44% |
11 |
D |
55-45% |
61-39% |
53-47% |
48-52% |
50-50% |
56-44% |
12 |
D |
54-46% |
63-37% |
54-46% |
50-50% |
52-48% |
58-42% |
13 |
D |
68-32% |
71-29% |
64-36% |
58-42% |
59-41% |
66-34% |
14 |
D |
56-44% |
62-38% |
54-46% |
49-51% |
52-48% |
57-43% |
15 |
R |
43-57% |
53-47% |
41-59% |
38-62% |
41-59% |
46-54% |
16 |
D |
77-23% |
76-24% |
71-29% |
66-34% |
67-33% |
72-28% |
17 |
R |
30-70% |
43-57% |
31-69% |
28-72% |
32-68% |
37-63% |
18 |
R |
36-64% |
45-55% |
34-64% |
31-69% |
34-66% |
39-61% |
19 |
R |
46-54% |
52-48% |
40-60% |
38-62% |
42-58% |
47-53% |
20 |
D |
54-46% |
59-41% |
48-52% |
44-56% |
49-51% |
54-46% |
21 |
D |
58-42% |
65-35% |
54-46% |
51-49% |
56-44% |
61-39% |
22 |
D |
56-44% |
63-37% |
54-46% |
51-49% |
55-45% |
59-41% |
23 |
R |
40-60% |
48-52% |
37-63% |
35-65% |
38-62% |
43-57% |
24 |
R |
49-51% |
56-44% |
45-55% |
41-59% |
45-55% |
51-49% |
25 |
R |
45-55% |
52-48% |
40-60% |
36-64% |
40-60% |
46-54% |
26 |
R |
56-44% |
59-41% |
49-51% |
43-57% |
46-54% |
52-48% |
27 |
D |
72-38% |
73-27% |
64-36% |
56-44% |
64-36% |
68-32% |
28 |
D |
65-35% |
69-31% |
61-39% |
55-45% |
59-41% |
63-37% |
29 |
D |
57-43% |
64-36% |
55-45% |
49-51% |
53-47% |
57-43% |
30 |
D |
64-36% |
65-35% |
58-42% |
52-48% |
55-45% |
60-40% |
31 |
D |
48-52% |
58-42% |
48-52% |
43-57% |
47-53% |
53-47% |
32 |
D |
50-50% |
61-39% |
50-50% |
44-56% |
49-51% |
55-45% |
33 |
D |
78-22% |
76-24% |
67-33% |
58-42% |
64-36% |
70-30% |
34 |
D |
73-27% |
74-26% |
66-34% |
59-41% |
63-37% |
69-31% |
35 |
D |
69-31% |
71-29% |
62-38% |
54-46% |
59-41% |
65-35% |
36 |
D |
88-12% |
88-12% |
80-20% |
70-30% |
77-23% |
84-16% |
37 |
R |
62-38% |
63-37% |
53-47% |
45-55% |
50-50% |
57-43% |
38 |
D |
77-23% |
76-24% |
66-34% |
57-43% |
60-40% |
70-30% |
39 |
R |
42-58% |
50-50% |
39-61% |
34-66% |
39-61% |
44-56% |
40 |
D |
53-47% |
61-39% |
51-49% |
45-55% |
50-50% |
55-45% |
41 |
D |
76-24% |
79-21% |
71-29% |
63-37% |
69-31% |
75-25% |
42 |
D |
93-7% |
94-6% |
90-10% |
83-17% |
88-12% |
92-8% |
43 |
D |
94-6% |
94-6% |
91-9% |
84-16% |
89-11% |
92-8% |
44 |
D |
88-12% |
90-10% |
85-15% |
78-22% |
83-17% |
87-13% |
45 |
D |
86-14% |
87-13% |
81-19% |
72-28% |
79-21% |
83-17% |
46 |
D |
86-14% |
88-12% |
83-17% |
74-26% |
80-20% |
85-15% |
47 |
D |
69-31% |
75-25% |
66-34% |
60-40% |
64-36% |
69-31% |
48 |
D |
64-36% |
69-31% |
62-38% |
55-45% |
59-41% |
65-35% |
49 |
D |
56-44% |
65-35% |
54-46% |
49-51% |
53-47% |
58-42% |
50 |
D |
55-45% |
63-37% |
53-47% |
48-52% |
52-48% |
57-43% |
51 |
D |
55-45% |
61-39% |
51-49% |
46-54% |
50-50% |
55-45% |
52 |
R |
50-50% |
58-42% |
49-51% |
43-57% |
47-53% |
52-48% |
53 |
R |
42-58% |
55-45% |
41-59% |
35-65% |
37-63% |
44-56% |
54 |
R |
61-39% |
68-32% |
58-42% |
50-50% |
52-48% |
60-40% |
55 |
R |
26-74% |
44-56% |
30-70% |
25-75% |
26-74% |
32-68% |
56 |
R |
26-74% |
46-54% |
30-70% |
23-77% |
25-75% |
31-69% |
57 |
R |
29-71% |
45-55% |
32-68% |
27-73% |
30-70% |
35-65% |
58 |
R |
30-70% |
47-53% |
33-67% |
27-73% |
30-70% |
36-64% |
59 |
R |
40-60% |
55-45% |
40-60% |
34-66% |
38-62% |
43-57% |
60 |
R |
22-78% |
39-61% |
25-75% |
22-78% |
23-77% |
28-72% |
The 50-50% districts: Clinton lost HD-32 by about 110 and Gov. Brown lost it by about 20 votes. Clinton won HD-52 by about 250 votes. Brad Avakian won HD-54 by about 160 votes. Tobias Read won HD-11 by a little over 100 votes, lost HD-37 by about 140 votes, lost HD-40 by about 70 votes, and lost HD-51 by about 190 votes.
Moving to the senate districts, which consist of nested house districts. For every one senate district there are two house districts, and so the 1st senate district is composed of the 1st and 2nd house districts, the 2nd senate district is composed of the 3rd and 4th house districts, and so on.
District |
Held By |
Pres |
Sen |
gov |
sos |
treas |
ag |
Election Results by Oregon Senate District
1 |
R |
31-69% |
44-56% |
35-65% |
30-70% |
33-67% |
37-63% |
2 |
R |
32-68% |
46-54% |
37-63% |
28-72% |
30-70% |
36-64% |
3 |
D* |
55-45% |
63-37% |
56-44% |
48-52% |
50-50% |
56-44% |
4 |
D |
55-45% |
62-38% |
55-45% |
50-50% |
52-48% |
57-43% |
5 |
D |
47-53% |
58-42% |
49-51% |
45-55% |
48-52% |
52-48% |
6 |
D |
55-45% |
62-38% |
53-47% |
49-51% |
51-49% |
57-43% |
7 |
D |
62-38% |
67-33% |
59-41% |
54-46% |
56-44% |
62-38% |
8 |
D |
60-40% |
64-36% |
56-44% |
52-48% |
54-46% |
59-41% |
9 |
R |
33-67% |
44-56% |
33-67% |
29-71% |
33-67% |
38-62% |
10 |
R |
50-50% |
56-44% |
44-56% |
41-59% |
46-54% |
51-49% |
11 |
D |
57-43% |
64-36% |
54-46% |
51-49% |
56-44% |
60-40% |
12 |
R |
44-56% |
52-48% |
41-59% |
38-62% |
41-59% |
47-53% |
13 |
R |
51-49% |
55-45% |
45-55% |
39-61% |
44-56% |
49-51% |
14 |
D |
69-31% |
71-29% |
63-37% |
56-44% |
62-38% |
66-34% |
15 |
D |
61-39% |
64-36% |
57-43% |
51-49% |
54-46% |
59-41% |
16 |
D |
49-51% |
60-40% |
49-51% |
44-56% |
48-52% |
54-46% |
17 |
D |
76-24% |
75-25% |
67-33% |
59-41% |
63-37% |
70-30% |
18 |
D |
79-21% |
80-20% |
71-29% |
62-38% |
68-32% |
75-25% |
19 |
D |
70-30% |
70-30% |
60-40% |
52-48% |
55-45% |
64-36% |
20 |
R |
47-53% |
55-45% |
45-55% |
39-61% |
44-56% |
49-51% |
21 |
D |
85-15% |
87-13% |
82-18% |
74-26% |
79-21% |
84-16% |
22 |
D |
91-9% |
92-8% |
88-12% |
81-29% |
86-14% |
90-10% |
23 |
D |
86-14% |
87-13% |
82-18% |
73-27% |
79-21% |
84-16% |
24 |
D |
66-34% |
72-28% |
64-36% |
57-43% |
61-39% |
67-33% |
25 |
D |
56-44% |
64-36% |
54-46% |
48-52% |
52-48% |
58-42% |
26 |
R |
53-47% |
60-40% |
50-50% |
44-56% |
48-52% |
54-46% |
27 |
R |
52-48% |
62-38% |
50-50% |
43-57% |
44-56% |
52-48% |
28 |
R |
26-74% |
45-55% |
30-70% |
24-76% |
26-74% |
31-69% |
29 |
R |
29-71% |
46-54% |
33-67% |
27-73% |
30-70% |
36-64% |
30 |
R |
31-69% |
48-52% |
33-67% |
28-72% |
31-69% |
36-64% |
Regarding 50-50% districts, Clinton won SD-10 by about 150 votes. Gov. Brown won SD-26 by 52 votes and lost SD-27 by about 400. Brad Avakian won SD-04 by about 400 votes. Tobias Read won SD-03 by over 300 votes.
Now for the congressional and legislative results compared to the presidential results in both 2012 and 2016.
District |
Held By |
Pres 2016 |
Pres 2012 |
US House |
OR House |
OR Senate |
Election Results in Southern Oregon districts
HD-01 |
R |
32.4-67.6% |
38.3-61.7% |
43.8-56.2% |
33.3-66.7% |
|
HD-02 |
R |
29.7-70.3% |
37-63% |
44.5-55.5% |
0-100% |
|
HD-03 |
R |
34.5-65.5% |
39.7-60.3% |
29.2-70.8% |
27-73% |
|
HD-04 |
R |
29.3-70.7% |
34.9-65.1% |
20.5-79.5% |
0-100% |
|
HD-05 |
D |
63.6-36.4% |
63-37% |
50.4-49.6% |
62.9-37.1% |
|
HD-06 |
R |
43.4-56.6% |
44.8-55.2% |
29.1-70.9 |
43.4-56.6% |
|
SD-01 |
R |
31.2-68.8% |
37.7-62.3% |
44.1-55.9% |
|
26.5-73.5% |
SD-02 |
R |
31.9-68.1% |
37.3-62.7% |
24.8-75.2% |
|
0-100% |
SD-03 |
D |
54.9-45.1% |
55.2-44.8% |
41-59% |
|
49.7-50.3% |
These districts are in Southern Oregon. HD-01 includes Curry County and parts of Coos, Douglas, and a little bit of Josephine counties, HD-02 is based in Roseburg and Douglas County, and SD-01 encompasses both of those. HD-03 is entirely within Josephine County and includes both Cave Junction and Grants Pass, while HD-04 stretches from outside Grants Pass into Jackson County, including Central Point. HD-05 is based in Ashland, with Jacksonville, Phoenix, Talent, and a few rural and Medford precincts, while HD-06 includes the rest of Medford. We lost SD-03 in a special election coinciding with the regular election because our incumbent died several months before the election, and his widow criticized the Democratic nominee’s attacks on the Republican nominee. The district doesn’t appear to be trending Republican in any serious way, so I think the result was more about those particular circumstances.
The first couple districts are in Peter DeFazio’s district and he significantly outperformed Clinton, while the latter districts were in Greg Walden’s, where he outperformed Trump. It is common in this region for Democrats to not have candidates and leave districts uncontested, as was the case here in HD-02, HD-04, and SD-02. Most of the region today is strongly Republican, and aside from HD-05 and SD-03 all of these districts trended Republican.
District |
Held By |
Pres 2016 |
Pres 2012 |
US House |
OR House |
OR Senate |
Election results in the Upper Willamette Valley/MidCoast
HD-07 |
R |
35.4-64.6% |
42.2-57.8% |
48.3-51.7% |
26.7-73.3% |
|
HD-08 |
D |
71.3-28.7% |
70.9-29.1% |
74.2-25.8% |
72.4-27.6% |
|
HD-09 |
D |
43.3-56.7% |
51-49% |
55.1-44.9% |
51.9-48.1% |
|
HD-10 |
D |
51.2-48.8% |
57.6-42.4% |
58.9-41.1% |
56.4-43.6% |
|
HD-11 |
D |
54.8-45.2% |
57.1-42.9% |
60.8-39.2% |
53.4-46.6% |
|
HD-12 |
D |
54.2-45.8% |
58.5-41.5% |
64.9-35.1% |
62.5-37.5% |
|
HD-13 |
D |
68-32% |
65.9-34.1% |
71.9-28.1% |
68.7-31.3% |
|
HD-14 |
D |
55.6-44.4% |
58.8-41.2% |
63.4-26.6% |
52-48% |
|
HD-15 |
R |
43.5-56.5% |
46.3-53.7% |
51.9-48.1% |
0-100% |
|
HD-16 |
D |
76.8-23.2% |
71.6-28.4% |
75.6-24.4% |
73.5-26.5% |
|
SD-04 |
D |
54.9-45.1% |
57.8-42.2% |
62.2-37.8% |
|
not up |
SD-05 |
D |
47.3-52.7% |
54.3-45.7% |
57-43% |
|
50.3-49.7% |
SD-06 |
D |
54.6-45.4% |
57.7-42.3% |
62.6-37.4% |
|
not up |
SD-07 |
D |
62-38% |
62.5-37.5% |
67.8-32.2% |
|
not up |
SD-08 |
D |
60.2-39.8% |
59.2-40.8% |
63.6-36.4% |
|
not up |
This region, including the Eugene-Springfield and Corvallis-Albany areas, and the coast from Coos Bay up to Tillamook, nearly uniformly trended Republican. Only the wealthier and/or better educated areas like South Eugene (HD-08), North Eugene (HD-13) and Corvallis (HD-16) trended Democratic. Less educated and more working class areas like the Coast (HD-09 and HD-10), West Eugene (HD-14), Springfield (HD-12), and Albany (HD-15) tended to trend strongly Republican. Most of this area is in Peter DeFazio’s congressional district, but HD-10 is mostly in Kurt Schrader’s, as well as a bit of HD-15.
Notably Clinton outperformed normal Democratic performance in wealthier/more educated North Eugene and Corvallis, while she underperformed normal Democratic performance in the areas that trended Republican. In HD-09, where the Democratic incumbent narrowly held on while Trump swung the district and won by double digits, nearly every Democrat on the ballot outperformed Clinton. As with 2012 our incumbent there outperformed the Senate Democrat in SD-05, who is in a more Democratic district.
District |
Held By |
Pres 2016 |
Pres 2012 |
us house |
Or house |
or senate |
Election Results in Mid Willamette Valley
hd-17 |
R |
30.1-69.9% |
37.4-62.6% |
40.7-59.3% |
0-100% |
|
hd-18 |
R |
36.2-63.8% |
39.4-60.6% |
44-56% |
33.2-66.8% |
|
hd-19 |
R |
45.8-54.2% |
45.9-54.1% |
49.1-50.9% |
38.9-61.1% |
|
hd-20 |
D |
54.2-45.8% |
52.3-47.7% |
55.8-44.2% |
53-47% |
|
hd-21 |
D |
58-42% |
59.5-40.5% |
61.8-38.2% |
59.6-40.4% |
|
hd-22 |
D |
56.3-43.7% |
55.8-44.2% |
59.7-40.3% |
55.5-44.5% |
|
hd-23 |
R |
39.8-60.2% |
44.4-55.6% |
45.8-54.2% |
0-100% |
|
hd-24 |
R |
49-51% |
49-51% |
50.6-49.4% |
45-55% |
|
hd-25 |
R |
44.7-55.3% |
44.4-55.6% |
47.8-52.2% |
36.2-63.8% |
|
sd-09 |
R |
33.1-66.9% |
38.4-61.6% |
42.3-57.7% |
|
28.1-71.9% |
sd-10 |
R |
50.1-49.9% |
49.2-50.8% |
52.6-47.4% |
|
not up |
sd-11 |
D |
57.3-42.7% |
58-42% |
60.9-39.1% |
|
not up |
sd-12 |
R |
44.1-55.9% |
46.2-53.8% |
48-52% |
|
37-63% |
sd-13 |
R |
50.9-49.1% |
47.5-52.5% |
51-49% |
|
not up |
This area includes much of the rural Willamette Valley, the Salem area, and McMinnville and Newberg, though SD-13 includes some of the outer southern suburbs of Portland. HD-17 is partially in Peter DeFazio’s district, HD-24 is entirely and HD-25 is partially in Suzanne Bonamici’s district, the rest is in Kurt Schrader’s district, except HD-23 which includes parts of all three.
Much of the region trended Republican, including the rural areas (HD-17, HD-18, HD-23), and working class parts of Salem and the unincorporated areas in east Salem (HD-21). Other areas like more middle class, more suburban South Salem (HD-19, HD-20) trended Democratic. HD-22 included some of working class Salem, but also majority Hispanic areas that trended Democratic, like Woodburn and Gervais. Clinton did better than any Democratic presidential nominee in those cities in ages. HD-25 includes both Keizer, Salem’s principal suburb, which trended Republican, and Newberg which is closer to the Portland metro area and trended strongly Democratic.
District |
held by |
pres 2016 |
pres 2012 |
us House |
or house |
or senate |
Election Results in the greater Portland metro area/North Coast
hd-26 |
R |
56.2-43.8% |
50.3-49.7% |
53.8-46.2% |
45.1-54.9% |
|
hd-27 |
D |
72.4-27.6% |
64.5-35.5% |
70.2-29.8% |
100-0% |
|
hd-28 |
D |
65.4-34.6% |
61.6-38.4% |
64.5-35.5% |
64.3-35.7% |
|
hd-29 |
D |
57.4-42.6% |
56.4-43.6% |
58.3-41.7% |
59.2-40.8% |
|
hd-30 |
D |
63.6-36.4% |
58.7-41.3% |
60.9-39.1% |
57.2-42.8% |
|
hd-31 |
D |
48.1-51.9% |
53.9-46.1% |
53.6-46.4% |
100-0% |
|
hd-32 |
D |
49.8-50.2% |
54.5-45.5% |
57.1-42.9% |
56.7-43.3% |
|
hd-33 |
D |
77.6-22.4% |
67.4-32.6% |
72.7-27.3% |
69.6-30.4% |
|
hd-34 |
D |
73.3-26.7% |
65.8-34.2% |
70.4-29.6% |
100-0% |
|
hd-35 |
D |
69.2-30.8% |
62.2-37.8% |
66.4-33.6% |
100-0% |
|
hd-36 |
D |
88.2-11.8% |
82-18% |
94.5-5.5% |
100-0% |
|
hd-37 |
R |
61.8-38.2% |
53.8-46.2% |
59.4-40.6% |
44.8% |
|
hd-38 |
D |
76.6-23.4 |
67.2-32.8% |
78.5-21.5% |
69.8-30.2% |
|
hd-39 |
R |
41.7-58.3% |
43.7-56.3% |
68.6-31.4% |
33.1-66.9% |
|
hd-40 |
D |
53.5-46.5% |
54.5-45.5% |
58.1-41.9% |
54.1-45.9% |
|
hd-41 |
D |
75.9-24.1% |
73-27% |
80.7-19.3% |
71.5-28.5% |
|
hd-42 |
D |
93.5-6.5% |
91.7-8.3% |
100-0% |
100-0% |
|
hd-43 |
D |
94.3-5.7% |
92.8-7.2% |
100-0% |
100-0% |
|
hd-44 |
D |
87.7-12.3% |
85.9-14.1% |
100-0% |
100-0% |
|
hd-45 |
D |
85.6-14.4% |
82.2-17.8% |
100-0% |
100-0% |
|
hd-46 |
D |
85.9-14.1% |
82.6-17.4% |
100-0% |
100-0% |
|
hd-47 |
D |
68.6-31.4% |
67.9-32.1% |
100-0% |
100-0% |
|
hd-48 |
D |
64.4-35.6% |
62.9-37.1% |
74.1-25.9% |
69.1-30.9% |
|
hd-49 |
D |
56-44% |
58.6-41.4% |
100-0% |
100-0% |
|
hd-50 |
D |
55.5-44.5% |
56.2-43.8% |
100-0% |
62-38% |
|
hd-51 |
D |
54.9-45.1% |
54.2-45.8% |
87.8-12.2% |
51-49% |
|
hd-52 |
R |
50.4-49.6% |
52.9-47.1% |
74.3-25.7% |
44.4-55.6% |
|
sd-14 |
D |
69.2-30.8% |
63.2-36.8% |
67.6-32.4% |
|
100-0% |
sd-15 |
D |
60.8-39.2% |
57.7-42.3% |
59.7-40.3% |
|
not up |
SD-16 |
D |
48.9-51.1% |
54.2-45.8% |
55.3-44.7% |
|
not up |
SD-17 |
D |
75.7-24.3% |
66.7-32.3% |
71.7-28.3% |
|
not up |
SD-18 |
D |
79.3-20.7% |
72.7-27.3% |
72.8-27.2% |
|
100-0% |
SD-19 |
D |
69.7-30.3% |
61-39% |
69.1-30.9% |
|
100-0% |
sd-20 |
R |
47.3-52.7% |
48.8-51.2% |
62.6-37.4% |
|
not up |
sd-21 |
D |
85.3-14.7% |
82.9-17.1% |
90.6-9.4% |
|
100-0% |
sd-22 |
D |
91.4-8.6% |
89.8-10.2% |
100-0% |
|
100-0% |
sd-23 |
D |
85.8-14.2% |
82.4-17.6% |
100-0% |
|
100-0% |
sd-24 |
D |
66.4-33.6% |
65.3-34.7% |
85-15% |
|
not up |
sd-25 |
D |
55.7-44.3% |
57.4-42.6% |
100-0% |
|
57.5-42.5% |
sd-26 |
R |
52.5-47.5% |
53.5-46.5% |
80.6-19.4% |
|
not up |
Suzanne Bonamici, Kurt Schrader, and Earl Blumenauer share the Portland metro area. Bonamici represents most of the lower-numbered districts on the western side of Portland, while the higher districts are in Schrader and Blumenauer’s districts. The dividing line is in HD-38, which includes part of all three. HD-52 even encompasses Greg Walden’s home county, Hood River. Blumenauer had no Republican opponent, so in his district the Democratic numbers are pretty inflated and not too helpful in two party vote. Even considering all votes the Democrats carried all of the Portland area legislative districts except HD-23 and still strongly outperformed Clinton there, though. Because of the weakness of Republicans in the metro area, there are vast swaths where they couldn’t field candidates and Democrats won unopposed, or with token third party opposition.
The Portland metro area generally trended towards Democrats, with Hillary Clinton performing at a historical best overall, even stronger than Barack Obama’s impressive 2008 performance. However, she was also the first Democrat since at least the Great Depression to lose Columbia County, just northwest of Portland (in fact, she didn’t even clear 40% of the vote).
More rural districts trended Republican. That includes HD-32, on the North Coast, in which basically every part of the district trended Republican. The others were more mixed. In HD-31 Columbia County swung strongly Republican, but it also has precincts in Multnomah and Washington Counties in the Portland and Beaverton areas that trended Democratic. HD-39 is rural/small town Clackamas County, where Canby trended Democratic, but most of the rest, like Estacada, swung hard to Trump. HD-52 includes Hood River County, which swung Democratic, but also parts of rural Multnomah and most of the population is in northeastern Clackamas County, which trended Republican.
The west side of Portland and western/southwestern suburbs swung to Democrats, mostly very hard. On the extreme west end HD-29 is heavily Hispanic, but more rural and working class, and had the weakest swing. Much of the rest of the west side is more affluent and well educated. This includes Wilonville and Sherwood (HD-26), Beaverton and Aloha (HD-27, HD-28, HD-34), Tigard (HD-35), West Linn and Tualatin (HD-37), and particularly elite areas in the West Hills, Lake Oswego, and downtown (HD-33, HD-36, HD-38). These are also the areas where Clinton did the best compared to other Democrats on the ballot.
The east side of the metro area presents a more complicated picture. All of the districts with substantial parts of Portland trended Democratic, with districts on the outer east side, which is more working class, tending to do so less (HD-47, HD-48, HD-51). The stridently Democratic inner east side (HD-42, HD-43, HD-44) and the well-to-do areas of the east side of Portland (HD-41, HD-45, HD-46) trended our way more. The suburbs in eastern Multnomah County (HD-49, HD-50) are somewhat more working class, and so trended a bit Republican, though the biggest suburb out there, Gresham, didn’t really change from 2012. More working class suburbs in Clackamas County like Gladstone (HD-40) and Milwaukie (HD-41) didn’t really trend that strongly our way, or trended slightly Republican. The Happy Valley area, though, which is well educated and wealthier, swung hard our way (HD-48, HD-51).
district |
held by |
pres 2016 |
pres 2012 |
us house |
or house |
or senate |
Election Results in Central/Eastern Oregon
hd-53 |
R |
42.5-57.5% |
41.9-58.1% |
28.8-71.2% |
32.4-67.6% |
|
hd-54 |
R |
60.8-39.2% |
55.9-44.1% |
42.6-57.4% |
47.9-52.1% |
|
hd-55 |
R |
25.9-74.1% |
33.1-66.9% |
19.4-80.6% |
24.2-75.8% |
|
hd-56 |
R |
25.5-74.5% |
29-71% |
17.4-82.6% |
45.3-54.7% |
|
hd-57 |
R |
28.8-71.2% |
33.9-66.1% |
20.8-79.2% |
0-100% |
|
hd-58 |
R |
29.9-70.1% |
35-65% |
20.8-79.2% |
0-100% |
|
hd-59 |
R |
39.6-60.4% |
43.1-56.9% |
26.7-73.3% |
29.6-70.4% |
|
hd-60 |
R |
21.7-78.3% |
27.3-72.7% |
18.2-81.8% |
0-100% |
|
SD-27 |
R |
51.6-48.4% |
48.9-51.1% |
35.6-64.4% |
|
39.3-60.7% |
SD-28 |
R |
25.7-74.3% |
31.2-68.8% |
18.5-81.5% |
|
38.4-61.6% |
sd-29 |
R |
29.4-70.6% |
34.5-65.5% |
20.8-79.2% |
|
0-100% |
sd-30 |
R |
31.5-68.5% |
35.7-64.3% |
22.8-77.2% |
|
29.7-70.3% |
Everything east of the Cascade Mountains is in Greg Walden’s congressional district, and all of it is represented by Republicans in the legislature. Aside from 2009-2011, when a Democrat represented Bend’s state house district (HD-54), that’s how it has been for a couple decades. Nearly all of the east except the Bend area (HD-53, HD-54) is more working class and less college educated, and has been trending Republican for years. The Bend area, though, is growing rapidly, and quickly transforming into a hub for educated white professionals and liberals. Quite a shift from 13 years ago when George W. Bush narrowly carried the city in his re-election, to 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama won the city comfortably, and to today when the Bend and some of the nearby communities swung hard Democratic.
At the state house level this is the best we’ve done HD-54 since we won it in 2008. We also did relatively well in the Klamath Falls districts (HD-55, SD-28) where a married couple of incumbent Republicans retired at the last minute, leaving only their hand-picked successors on the Republican primary ballot. This pissed off locals, who first tried to support write-ins in the Republican primaries, and then resorted to voting for the Democratic nominees.
Briefly, downballot the 2016 vote reflected patterns in voting more like the 2012 results than the 2016 presidential results. Democrats didn’t win any districts won by Mitt Romney in 2012, but they didn’t pick up any Republican districts that wildly swung to Clinton, even those that voted for her by more than 10 or 20 points. Republicans only won a few districts won by Barack Obama in 2012, but they didn’t pick up any of the Democratic districts that trended to Trump, even the one he flipped from the 2012 results by double digits.
The trend at the presidential level followed the trend in voter registration better than it did in 2012, but it also reasonably well reflected the areas of relative strength for Clinton and Trump in the primaries. Clinton did better in the Portland metro area, Corvallis, and Bend than she did in 2008, while Sanders did better than Obama (in 2008) in the rest of the state, while Trump performed strongly in rural areas, especially in Southern and Eastern Oregon, while he did less well in the urban areas, especially areas like the Portland metro area, Salem, Corvallis, and Hood River. In fact Trump failed to achieve a majority of the vote in the primary in Corvallis and Hood River, as well as several neighborhoods of Portland, mainly on the more affluent or educated ones.
It could have been that the presidential vote more reflected views on the individual candidates than normal partisan trends, but with Trump’s victory, I am less certain that will be the case now.