It’s cold outside, so Daily Kos Election’s ongoing project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide is heading to Florida where it’s warmer. You can find our complete data set here, which we're updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available.
Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton 49-48, just a small shift to the right from Mitt Romney’s 50-49 loss to Barack Obama in 2012, but one that made all the difference for deciding Florida’s 29 electoral votes. Note that is the first cycle where Florida used its new court-drawn congressional map after the state's previous Republican-drawn map was struck down for violating the state’s voter-approved law against political gerrymandering. (Note that our 2012 numbers for Florida, adjusted retroactively for redistricting, come from the state, so any comparisons between 2012 and 2016 aren't quite apples-to-apples.) Clinton carried the same 13 congressional districts that Obama won while Trump took the same 14 Romney seats, but there were some notable huge in both directions.
We’ll start with a look at the two Republicans who hold Clinton/Obama seats. Florida’s 26th District, which is located around Miami and includes Key West, shifted from 55-44 Obama to 57-41 Clinton. However, that didn’t stop Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo from decisively winning a second term 53-41 in his rematch with ex-Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia. During the 2014 GOP wave, Curbelo unseated Garcia 51.5-48.5 in the old and more-conservative version of the 26th.
Outside groups on both sides spent heavily on this race, but Curbelo decisively outspent his Democratic foe. Garcia narrowly defeated the DCCC’s favored candidate in the primary, and he brought some ethical baggage and strange behavior to the general election: Most notably, Garcia actually said that Hillary Clinton "is under no illusions that you want to have sex with her, or that she's going to seduce you." Team Blue may be able to do much better in the future against Curbelo if they manage to nominate someone else. However, Republicans frequently do well downballot in the Miami area even as traditionally Republican Cuban-American voters have become more hospitable to Democratic presidential candidates. This seat is blue enough that Curbelo shouldn’t be entrenched, but he certainly won’t be easy to beat.
The neighboring 27th District, which includes much of Miami, shifted even further to the left: Obama carried the seat 53-46, while Clinton won 59-39 here. Democrats haven’t seriously targeted longtime Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in a long time, and she pulled off a clear 55-45 win last year against Scott Fuhrman, a Democrat who used his personal money to run some ads but had little outside help. However, this was Ros-Lehtinen’s closest race since her initial 1989 special election victory. Ros-Lehtinen is an institution in the Miami area and it will be very difficult for national Democrats to find a viable candidate. However, this seat may be anti-Trump enough that a credible Democrat can at least make the incumbent sweat.
Two Republican incumbents lost their seats last year after redistricting made their seats considerably bluer than before. Obama only carried the suburban Orlando 7th District by an extremely tight 49.41-49.37, but Clinton won a convincing 51-44 here. Republican Rep. John Mica couldn’t run quite far enough ahead of Trump and lost 51.5-48.5 to Democrat Stephanie Murphy. But Mica really should be blaming himself, rather than Trump, for his loss. Mica did very little to prepare for a tough race after redistricting hit, and he refused to do so much as hire a campaign manager. Mica hasn’t ruled out a comeback bid, but national Republicans probably wouldn’t want him back.
The St. Petersburg-based 13th District shifted far to the right, but not by quite enough to save Republican incumbent David Jolly. While Obama carried the redrawn seat by a clear 55-44, Clinton won just 49.6-46.4; Jolly lost his re-election campaign to Democrat Charlie Crist by a very similar 52-48 margin. Jolly had awful relationship with the party leadership, and the NRCC didn't run any ads to help him, allowing Jolly to get swamped on the airwaves. Jolly has expressed interest in a 2018 rematch, which his would-be allies at the NRCC probably aren’t celebrating.
Three open seats changed hands last year as well. Democrat essentially conceded the North Florida 2nd District after redistricting turned it deeply red, while Republicans wrote off the Orlando 10th after the new map made it unwinnable for a Republican. However, the 18th District along the Treasure Coast was all-but-untouched by redistricting, and it hosted an expensive battle. The seat shifted from just 51-48 Romney to 53-44 Trump, and Republican Brian Mast defeated Democrat Randy Perkins by a stronger 54-43.
The remaining congressional districts were afterthoughts in the general election, and most of them look like they’ll stay that way. The one possible exception is the 25th District, which stretches from Hialeah around Miami to Florida’s southern Gulf Coast. The seat still backed Trump, but his 50-48 win was a huge drop from Romney’s 55-45 win. However, this is another area where the GOP is strong downballot, and Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart probably won’t be vulnerable outside of a Democratic wave year for a while.