As a Minnesota resident, I was as surprised as most people when Jesse Ventura won election as Governor of Minnesota in 1998. In some ways, his election has some instruction for people trying to figure out how Donald Trump could become president of the United States. But there are also some crucial differences.
Ventura won in a 3 way race against Democrat Hubert Humphrey III and Republican Norm Coleman. Both of his opponents were career politicians who had no particular personal following. Things in Minnesota were going reasonably well at the time. But most activities of government are dull and bureaucratic, and dramatic fixes to problems are very rare. People are easily bored, and frustrated that someone can’t just decree that difficulties go away. In short, people are easily bored by politics and government. When Ventura ran, a lot of people thought here was someone different, someone who might make something happen that the dull careerists were too timid or too bought to do. Someone who might make things interesting. Ventura had no particular ideology, so he did not scare people away with any political convictions. He was good at publicizing himself as a new broom that will sweep the political cobwebs away. He also had a lot of narcissism, but that just added to the possible excitement. A lot of people thought that this could be exciting if he somehow won.
Then it happened. Ventura, taking advantage of the 3 way race, won a plurality. Of course, when he took office, nothing much happened. Ventura had little interest in the day to day operation of government, and no consistent ideology or set of principles to guide his policy. So the state legislature and the government bureaucrats carried on as before, and little changed.
I think that the emotional appeal of Donald Trump for many who voted for him is very similar to the appeal that Jesse Ventura. While racists and alt-right types voted for Trump, there were many other voters who are not consciously racist or even very ideological, but had a different motivation. This group of voters are tired of the current career politicians and the gridlock that they appear to be helpless to break. To them Hilary Clinton represents that gridlock. They do not follow politics and government the way DKos members do, so they have difficulty perceiving the ideological divisions behind the political dysfunction, and the how the design of our national government lends itself to gridlock. They want action and excitement to break things loose. They perceive Trump as someone who will break through the gridlock and get things done, but lack the interest and patience to really try to understand what he was saying and what he might do. There won’t be any political boredom with Trump as President!
This is the group of people who will be surprised when they lose their insurance when the ACA is repealed because they did not understand what Obamacare is. They will be disappointed when millions of good paying secure jobs are not suddenly created, because they did not understand that Trump’s statements were marketing hype with no policy understanding behind it, a void that will be filled by Paul Ryan’s version of conservative economic policy. Given how unpredictable and malicious Trump can be, there may be other unpleasant surprises.
The big difference is that Donald Trump can cause a lot more damage than Ventura ever would. His ego and malice are a bad combination with the powers of the national government and Republican control of Congress and many states.
In an ideologically divided nation, this sort of motivation can tip the balance, and I think that is what happened. In the long run, we have to hope that the political principles of a lot more people will move away from the conservatives. But a lot of damage to a lot of people will happen before that.