This week, the Salt Lake City Tribune and the University of Utah released an eye-popping poll from Dan Jones & Associates that shows ex-Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman demolishing Sen. Orrin Hatch, a fellow Republican, 62-21 in a hypothetical Senate matchup. That’s a very scary number for Hatch, but there are a few caveats to note before we start chanting “bring out your dead!” outside of Hatch’s house.
The first thing to note is that respondents were asked if Hatch should seek an eighth term (they said no by a 78-17 margin) before the horserace question was asked. That question, particularly the information that Hatch wants an eighth (!) term, could very well have influenced respondents. If, for instance, the poll had instead led with a question asking how voters in this conservative state felt about Huntsman’s past support for the DREAM Act, the former governor may not have polled so well. As we always say, it’s better to ask the horserace question up front rather than risk influencing responses.
The other strange thing is that this is a poll of 605 registered Utah voters, not GOP primary voters. Utah allows independents to register on primary day as Republicans, but registered Democrats don’t have that privilege. However, the sub-sample of Republicans also favors Huntsman by a wide 49-35 margin, which is still not a good number at all for Hatch. But as we also always say, this is just one poll, and we should wait for more information. (The Tribune’s article also discloses that Huntsman’s brother is the paper’s owner and publisher.)
We also may need to wait a while to see if we even get a Hatch/Huntsman match in the first place. Hatch hasn’t announced if he’ll run again, and Huntsman says he won’t decide until Hatch makes his plans known. However, Huntsman hasn’t ruled out challenging Hatch, and his only response to this survey was, “Regardless of poll numbers and 2018 politics, we should all be grateful for Senator Hatch's service to our state and country.”