We arrive in Texas for our project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available. You can also click here to learn more about why this data is so difficult to come by.
Texas’s GOP-drawn congressional map was designed to create 24 safely red seats and 11 safely Democratic districts, with only the 23rd District in the western part of the state being truly competitive. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state 57-41 and won those 24 red seats by double digits, while Barack Obama easily carried the 11 Democratic districts; the 23rd backed Romney 51-48.
Things were a lot more interesting in 2016, with Donald Trump defeating Hillary Clinton by a smaller 52.5-43.5 margin, the closest presidential election in Texas in decades. Clinton won all the Obama districts, as well as the 23rd and two solidly Romney seats, the 7th and 32nd. However, the GOP still holds all the districts that Romney won in 2012, while Democrats have all the Obama/Clinton districts. The map at the top of this post, which shows each district as equally sized, illustrates all this, with the three Romney/Clinton districts standing out in pink.
We’ll start with a look at Texas’s 23rd District, which stretches from El Paso to San Antonio and went from 51-48 Romney to 50-46 Clinton. However, the swing wasn’t quite enough for Democrats downballot. Republican Will Hurd narrowly unseated Democrat Pete Gallego in the 2014 GOP wave, and he won their expensive rematch by a similarly tight 48-47 margin.
Surprisingly, two other Texas Republicans have now found themselves sitting in seats Clinton won. Romney easily carried the 7th, located in the Houston area, by a wide 60-39 spread, but the well-educated seat backed Clinton by a narrow 48.5-47.1. Republican Rep. John Culberson still decisively turned back a challenge from a perennial candidate 56-44, and it remains to be seen if Democrats will be able to field a stronger contender next time—or whether the GOP’s weakness at the top of the ticket was a one-time phenomenon due solely to Trump.
The 32nd in the Dallas area also swung wildly from 57-41 Romney to 49-47 Clinton. However, Democrats didn’t even field an opponent against longtime GOP Rep. Pete Sessions, a former head of the NRCC who’s capable of raising as much money as he needs to in order to win. This is another well-educated seat where we’ll need to see if Democrats will be able to take advantage of Trump’s weaknesses, or if The Donald’s 2016 problems don’t hurt the GOP much downballot in future years.
Seven other Republican-held seats also moved to the left by double digits. The closest result came in Rep. Kenny Marchant’s 24th District in the Dallas-Forth Worth suburbs, which Trump won just 51-45 after Romney cruised to a 60-38 win four years earlier. Marchant beat a penniless opponent 56-39, so this district could also wind up on Democratic watch lists.
The other notable shifts include:
- Rep. Ted Poe’s Houston-area 2nd District, which went from 63-36 Romney to a more-modest 52-43 Trump;
- Rep. Michael McCaul’s suburban Austin 10th District, which moved from 59-39 Romney to 52-43 Trump;
- Rep. Lamar Smith’s San Antonio based-21st, which went from 60-38 Romney to 53-43 Trump; and
- Rep. Pete Olson’s 22nd, a suburban Houston seat similar to the district that Tom DeLay used to represent, which shifted from 62-37 Romney to 52-44 Trump.
None of these four seats are exactly swing territory, but they at least don’t look as untouchable for Democrats as they once did. Meanwhile, all 11 Clinton/Obama seats look completely safe for Democrats. We also have a new contender for most-Trumpy congressional seat in America. Texas’s 13th District, which includes Amarillo and Wichita Falls in the Panhandle, went for Trump 79.9-16.9, narrowly dispatching Kentucky’s 5th District and its 79.6-17.5 Trump win.
It’s also important to note that this map is still the subject of an extremely long-running lawsuit that a three-judge federal panel still hasn’t adjudicated, even though the case was first filed in 2011 and a trial was held all the way back in 2014. That suit alleges that the current map unconstitutionally disadvantages the rights of minority voters, and it’s survived multiple attempts by Texas Republicans to dismiss it, but thanks to the court’s inexplicable delay, three elections have already been held using these lines. However, if the court finally acts and decides in the plaintiffs' favor, 2018’s elections could proceed under a different map.