In the race for New Jersey governor, Democrat Phil Murphy currently holds a 14 point lead over Republican Kim Guadagno among likely voters. The Monmouth University Poll finds that Guadagno is dragged down as much by the Garden State's general views of key Republican leaders as she is by her specific association with one of those officials, namely the state's governor. Moreover, she has gained no traction with her plan to tackle property taxes - only a handful of voters are even aware that she has such a plan, but most would be predisposed to distrust any candidate promises on this issue even if they knew about it.
Currently, 51% of likely voters support Murphy and 37% support Guadagno. Other candidates garner 2% of the vote and 9% are undecided. This is Monmouth's first likely voter poll of the 2017 campaign in New Jersey. A July poll of registered voters showed a significantly larger lead, but the two polls' methodologies are not comparable. The current poll follows the same likely voter methodology that Monmouth used in our 2013 and 2014 New Jersey election polling.
"This is not the twenty-something point lead that some polls have been showing, but it is still formidable. While Guadagno may have an opportunity to break through, the fact that Murphy's support is over 50 percent makes that task very difficult," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
With just five weeks to go before Election Day, nearly half of the likely electorate has not formed an opinion about either major party nominee. Just 33% hold a favorable view of Murphy and 23% have an unfavorable view, while 44% express no opinion. A similar 31% hold a favorable view of Guadagno and 25% have an unfavorable view, while 45% express no opinion.
"Low name recognition of New Jersey gubernatorial candidates this late in the game is not unprecedented because the state lacks its own media market. However, it is unusually low this year. The campaigns simply can't break through with the political noise coming out of Washington," said Murray.
In fact, current opinion of Washington and Trenton loom large in this race. Just 23% say the state is headed in the right direction while 66% say New Jersey is on the wrong track. Governor Chris Christie gets a 22% approve and 75% disapprove rating among likely voters - which is somewhat better than his approval rating among all New Jersey residents (15% July) but certainly nothing to brag about. President Donald Trump also receives a poor 33% approve and 59% disapprove rating from the Garden State electorate.
Guadagno has been the state's Lieutenant Governor for nearly eight years. Half of voters (51%) say this is something they tend to associate with the GOP nominee when they think about her current campaign. It's also worth noting, though, that 21% of likely voters are unaware that Guadagno holds this office at all.
About 3-in-10 voters (29%) say that knowing Guadagno is the state's LG makes them less likely to vote for her. This is nearly double the number (16%) who say this fact makes them more likely to support her. Most voters (54%) say her current job makes no difference in their vote. Furthermore, 25% of voters say Guadagno has been too supportive of Christie in her role as lieutenant governor, while just 8% say she has not been supportive enough and 43% say she has offered her boss the right amount of support. Another 24% have no opinion on this. Among voters who are still undecided or only leaning toward a candidate at this point, 22% say Guadagno is too supportive of Christie, 13% say she is not supportive enough, and 35% say she has given the right amount of support.
"The double whammy of Trump and Christie has not helped the Republican brand in New Jersey. While Gaudagno's current position as Christie's number two is not a death blow to her chances, it certainly isn't helping," said Murray.