The UN Environment Programme’s eighth Emissions Gap Report came out yesterday. At 116 pages it’s impressively hefty; even the executive summary runs to ten pages. The first paragraph of that summary explains in general terms what the report is about:
The Paris Agreement adopted in 2015 set the specific goal of holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius (°C) compared to pre-industrial levels, and of pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. This report, which is the eighth Emissions Gap Report produced by UN Environment, focuses on the “gap” between the emissions reductions necessary to achieve these agreed targets at lowest cost and the likely emissions reductions from full implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) forming the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also explores potential for enhanced mitigation efforts in a number of key sectors, presenting cost-effective options for enhanced action to close the emissions gap.
The report itself is divided into seven chapters whose titles give a good general picture of the report:
- Scoping the Emissions Gap Report 2017
- Pre-2020 Action Trends and Progress
- The Emissions Gap and Its Implications
- Bridging the Gap: Sectoral Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction
- Bridging the Gap: Phasing Out Coal
- Bridging the Gap: The Role of Short-lived Climate Pollutants
- Bridging the Gap: Carbon Dioxide Removal
The executive summary itself is divided into 13 sections, each headed by a summary statement. The first is the most important:
The overarching conclusions of the report are that there is an urgent need for accelerated short-term action and enhanced longer-term national ambition, if the goals of the Paris Agreement are to remain achievable — and that practical and cost-effective options are available to make this possible.
Some of the key points from this section:
- The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that form the foundation of the Paris Agreement cover only approximately one-third of the emissions reductions needed to be on a least-cost pathway for the goal of staying well below 2°C. The gap between the reductions needed and the national pledges made in Paris is alarmingly high.
- Looking beyond 2030, it is clear that if the emissions gap is not closed by 2030, it is extremely unlikely that the goal of holding global warming to well below 2°C can still be reached. Even if the current NDCs are fully implemented, the carbon budget for limiting global warming to below 2°C will be about 80% depleted by 2030. Given currently available carbon budget estimates, the available global carbon budget for 1.5°C will already be well depleted by 2030.
- More ambitious NDCs will be necessary by 2020. New technology is not required, however: a systematic assessment of sectoral mitigation options presented in the report shows that the gap can be closed before 2030 by adopting already known and cost-effective technologies. In particular, over half of the emissions reduction that could be achieved at a cost of less than $100 per tonne of CO2 emissions comes from solar and wind energy, efficient appliances, efficient passenger cars, afforestation, and stopping deforestation.
Some noteworthy specifics from other sections of the summary:
- The assessment shows that between 80% and 90% of coal reserves worldwide will need to remain in the ground if climate targets are to be reached; the corresponding figures for oil reserves and gas reserves are approximately 35% and 50%, respectively.
- The existing NDCs are woefully inadequate: full implementation of the unconditional NDCs and comparable action afterwards is consistent with a temperature increase of about 3.2°C by 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels, and even full implementation of the conditional NDCs would lower the projection by only about 0.2°C. What’s more, most G20 countries will need new policies and actions just to meet their current NDC pledges.
- Closing the emissions gap crucially requires that we avoid building new coal-fired power plants and that we phase out existing ones. This will require careful handling of issues such as employment impacts, investor interests, grid stability, and energy access.
The news is not all bad. As I mentioned above, the emissions gap can be closed by 2030 at a cost of less than $100 per tonne of CO2 emissions in all cases assessed in the production of the report. Doing so would of course have other benefits, e.g., in public health. Reduction in emissions of short-lived climate pollutants like methane and black carbon has the potential to avoid as much as 0.6°C warming by mid-century with proven technologies, but only with the usual caveat: dedicated policy action to establish legal frameworks and institutional capacity is required to unlock it. Finally, negative emission technologies can have a significant effect, though the more technological approaches are too new to allow accurate assessment.
I highly recommend the executive summary. I have not myself had time to wade through the entire report itself, but it’s clear even from the most casual glance that it’s replete with data.