District 22 is not being contested this fall by a Democratic candidate. If someone steps up to compete for the seat they will be going against Kathy Byron. This seat has not been contested by anyone since 2013. This is a winnable district in every way, let's take a look at the numbers.
District 22 Fast Facts
Of the 4 localities in the district, there are 12 precincts in Bedford County, 5 precincts each in Campbell and Franklin County and 6 in Lynchburg City. Below is graph highlighting the vote breakdown in each locality compared to total active registered voters in 2015:
At a 19% participation rate overall opportunities abound. I would probably spend the early campaign driving voter contact in Lynchburg City and figure out which precincts to go after in Bedford County. Any of these races under 10,000 votes are ripe for the picking. We just need to find candidates to contest races like this one.
Here is the share of Active Voters per locality:
This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis that can be done simply based on publically available data. There is a deeper analysis that can be done for sure.
You can request a file from the Secretary of States office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 22, let her know you are a candidate or working on the campaign if you are a member of her committee.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017.
Note: My name is Donald Braden. This was posted to my blog on my website The Full Slate Project last night.