OH-Gov: Surprise, surprise, surprise. For the umpteenth time, Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has announced that he will not run for statewide office and will instead stay in the House. A number of Ohio Democrats were waiting to see if Ryan would run for governor and now that he’s said no, we’re likely to see some movement.
And we may not need to wait very long for the first Buckeye State Democrat to enter the race to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. John Kasich. On Tuesday, almost immediately after Ryan made his plans known, ex-Rep. Betty Sutton confirmed that she was seriously considering and “will have an announcement next week.” Sutton was last on the ballot in 2012, after redistricting threw her into the same northeastern seat as Republican Rep. Jim Renacci. Sutton lost 52-48, running ahead of Obama's 53-45 deficit here. After that, Sutton received a federal appointment to serve as administrator of the Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corp., a position she resigned as the Obama administration ended.
A number of other Ohio Democrats have made noises about running for governor. State Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni, who hails from the Youngstown area, has talked about getting in, and the Cleveland Plain Dealer Henry Gomez reports that with Ryan out, Schiavoni is “expected to move quickly into official campaign mode.” Gomez also says that Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley and ex-Youngstown Mayor Jay Williams, who just left the U.S. Commerce Department, are also reportedly more likely to run in a Ryan-less field. However, Whaley is also up for re-election this year, and unless she wants to try and run for both jobs at once, she may need to make up her mind quickly. Ex-state Rep. Connie Pillich, who was Team Blue’s treasurer nominee, also is reportedly interested, though Gomez says she may decide to go for a different statewide office.
One big wildcard hanging over the race is ex-state Attorney General Richard Cordray, who serves as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. However, even if Cordray wants to go back home and run for governor, he may not be able to. The GOP would love to gut or kill the CFPB and if Cordray resigns, he’ll make their job far easier. Cordray can’t run for office as long as he holds his job in D.C. but if he leaves voluntarily, he’ll anger prominent liberals who want him to stay. If Trump manages to fire Cordray and any legal challenges are resolved in the GOP's favor in time for 2018, Cordray can run for office as the guy who got fired for standing up for the middle class. But if things drag on for months and months, Cordray may just need to sit out the governor’s race regardless of what he really wants to do.
A few other Democrats could also run. State Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill says he’ll defer to Cordray, but also insists he won’t decide until the end of 2017. O'Neill has a horrible relationship with the state party, which could hinder a bid. Ex-state Sen. Nina Turner, who was the 2014 Democratic nominee for secretary of state, is considering. Turner was a vocal supporter of Bernie Sanders during the 2016 presidential primary, but she angered other Democrats by refusing to endorse or campaign for Hillary Clinton, and for briefly flirting with serving as Jill Stein’s running mate on the Green Party ticket.
Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune also hasn’t ruled out a bid, though his brief 2014 run does not inspire confidence. Ex-Rep. Dennis Kucinich also hasn’t said no; while Kucinich has portrayed himself as a liberal populist, in recent years he’s praised Trump and repeatedly met with and defended Syria's murderous dictator Bashar al-Assad.
The race has already begun on the GOP side. Attorney General Mike DeWine (a former U.S. senator) and Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor are in, while Secretary of State Jon Husted is likely to join them soon, while wealthy Rep. Jim Renacci, who beat Sutton in 2012, is considering. Things went horribly for Democrats in Ohio in 2014 and 2016, and Democrats hope they can rebound next year by re-electing Sen. Sherrod Brown and flipping the governor’s mansion.
P.S: With Ryan staying in the House, Democrats will have an easier time defending his Youngstown 13th District. This seat swung from 63-35 Obama to 51-45 Clinton, and the GOP would likely have targeted it if Ryan left.